Month: September 2023

The Championship is well known for its competitiveness, and we will be betting on that here with Huddersfield to upset Ipswich today.

There are five pieces of information that suggest Huddersfield are undervalued in this game:

1. New manager bounce: Darren Moore appointed in the past week for Huddersfield
2. Moore managed Sheffield Wednesday last year in League Two, drawing twice with Ipswich last season
3. Hudderfield played well in his first opening game away to Coventry, finishing 1-1. The match saw Moore adapt a 5-3-2 system.
4. Ipswich are without Sam Morsy who is one of their key men, with 3.88 tackles per 90, 1.5 blocks per 90 and also being a progressive passer, helping their attacks.
5. Huddersfield have no significant players out.

Bet:

Huddersfield 2-0 HT @ 28.0 €20
Huddersfield Score 4 and win @ 34.0 €20

This game looks evenly priced at the team level. So I am looking for value in the player to have 2 shots on goals or more market.

Mario Lemina to have two shots on target 48.0

Mario Lemina has played three games in midfield for Wolves this season, averaging 2.67 shots per 90. Most of these shots have not been on target this season, but his career average shows a shot-on-target percentage of 23%. So it’s quite possible that he can get back to his normal levels.

On the negative side, Palace have only allowed 4 shots on goal in total in their opening three games. Last season, they averaged 11 per game. They have added Jefferson Lerma to the central midfield, which has helped, but it still looks like this number is too low, and it should also average closer to 8 to 9 shots per game.

Tommy Doyle has also signed for Wolves so this is a risk to Lemina’s minutes.

Wolves have signed a replacement for Matheus Nunez in the form of Jean-Ricner Bellegarde on Friday evening. It more likely that Lemina would start in this away game and Bellegarde would be on the bench.

Lemina is priced at 48.0 (or just over 1%) to have two shots on goal during this game.

Matt Doherty to have two shots on target 50.0

Doherty is a right back who has returned to Wolves and played midweek in the Cup game, where he scored two goals and in doing so demonstrated that he is still the game full back he was during this first Wolves spell as well as with Spurs, who likes to attack the opponent’s box at every opportunity.

During his career he has averaged 0.28 shots on goal per 90 minutes.

Wolves have been defending poorly this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Semado is dropped in favour of Doherty for this game to help give Wolves more attacking options as well as help improve the defense.

Rayan Ait Nouri is the most likely started at left back and he is priced at 15.0 to have two shots on goals so if Doherty starts he is value at 48.0.

Gary O’Neill might even change his system to a wing back system which might push Doherty even further forward. He has played with a back four in each game (3) this season, but it can’t be ruled out. More width might help to get in behind Palace’s defence.

€20 on both Doherty and Lemina to have two shots on goal.

Southampton are a club where a huge amount of player turnover is going on, and with the transfer window due to close on Friday evening, this is only going to continue and increase. Players who have played an important role in their start this season are either subject to bids or have been sold, such as Che Adams and Nathan Tella.

They are bringing in new players such as Ryan Fraser, Mason Holgate, Flynn Downes and Ross Stewart. Holgate is expected to start as Jack Stephens was injured in their last game. This makes their side weaker on the face of it as Holgate struggled in an Everton side who leaked goals.

Southampton manager Russell Martin will likely be preoccupied with transfer dealings in the lead up to this game, more so than Sunderland, who by contract look to be a more settled squad and set-up.

Another factor is that Southampton have been over performing in their results this season, scoring 4 more goals than they would be expected to and this includes the two penalties in the Norwich game.

Sunderland, by contrast, have been marginally underperforming their expected goals scored and goals conceded.

Additional considerations are that Sunderland are at home which should help them in preparation to the game given the attention of the transfer window on Friday night, the long trip from Southampton to Sunderland, and it is also an early kick-off.

Sunderland don’t tend to score many goals at home, averaging 1.6 goals per game last season at home. Southampton have conceded seven goals in four games so far this season, and they would be fortunate not to concede more in their win against QPR last week.

Southampton dominate possession in their games this season, averaging 71%. Sunderland have averaged 59%. The risk factor I see here for Southampton is that if they have less of the ball in this game compared to their first four games, they are at higher risk for a red card.

They have averaged 4.75 yellow cards per game, with the majority of them coming from defensive players.

Weighing all of this up and looking at how this has been priced on the markets, I see value in a Sunderland home win by two goals.

Bets:

Sunderland 2-0 HT, 20.0 (€10)
Sunderland Score 4 and Win 21.0 (€15)
Jobe Bellingham Score two or more 27.0 (€6)