Month: April 2023

Leeds are in freefall. With no Tyler Adams in the mideld and with McKennie still adapting the life in the Premier League they are starting to ship goals. Roca and McKennie are just not the right players to screen the midfield or to play the right progressive passes to the forward players.

Looking at the stats, McKennie improved his number of tackles, putting in 3 in the last game against Fulham, winning 2, but overall he tends to go missing in games and isn’t a natural defensive midfielder. You can see the majority of his tackles are in the midfield third. Roca is a similar type player, with supposedly a better passing range, however he only averages 1.1 key pass per 90.

Leeds have conceded 20 goals in their last six league games and based on xG they should have conceded 14. So how to account for this difference? I am generally a firm believer in xG. However in this context it is more likely that players “heads drop” and then shots that are typically harder, are now easier for the opposition as they get more space.

Leicester have been very erratic this season. They have typically created chances but have typically let in plenty of chances. In some games they have had no creativity whatsoever, which has been hard to understand – but they have players who can create – this is the point I will be focusing on here.

With new management and a win against Wolves in their last game, which gets them out of the relegation zone, it will have given them a confidence boost. They can build on this against a poor Leeds team. Away from home it can often be easier as you are away from the heavy expectation of the home fans. When things are going OK or well it is a bonus, but when the whole stadium can sense the desperate situation it can affect the whole team.

The second half collapse at home against Crystal Palace as well as the collapse in the last home game against Liverpool sets alarm bells ringing. There really no options in the squad that they haven’t tried and now they are back to the worst points of the Biesla era with many of the same faces still playing.

Meslier’s confidence must be low after the amont of goals he has conceded in the past few games. At one point he had faced ten shots on goal and conceded ten goals. He is a quality goalkeeper with a lot of experience so I’d don’t expect that to continue but his form is affected.

I’m looking for the value options in this one. So I’ve gone for a few speculative bets in a hope of reaching the €10,000 mark.

Bets:

2-2 HT Score, 85.0, €4

Leicester to win, 6-0, 7-1, 7-2 – 1000.0 – €28 staked in total on this

Bank: €21

Happy hunting.

Fulham won the game 2-1 and narrowing won on xG 1.44 to 1.07 which I was anticipating, as in the preview I said they should conceded 1 to 2 goals. Fulham did look to isolate William against the right back and it did happen a lot with him attempting 11 dribbles during the game, the highest out of anyone in this game, and five of them were on the edge of the box.

However, he wasn’t able to make the most of this, contributing to zero key passes in the game. He did have three shots during the game, Fulham’s second highest after Pereira, but they were all from outside the box. All in all, the was an OK bet, but I expected a bit better from him.

Wober did get forward on occasion and did have a few touches in the Fulham penalty area, but had no key passes and no shots during the game. At 85.0 there is margin for error and overall I would still rate this a profitable play. He had 72 touches during the game, Leed’s second highest, but the majority was on the left touchline. He also had the most passes for Leeds at 60.

Leeds created very little and will be the focus on today’s bet when they play Leicester.

Having reviewed the teams two bets have stood out:

1. William to score at 4.9 (€4) and William to score two at 27.0 (€14)
2. Max Wober to have two shots on target at 85.0 (€14)

William has had five shots in the last game against Everton. So it would appear that he is taking on more responsibility for scoring in the absence of Mitrovic. His xG was only 0.22 off those shots so the quality of the shots was low.

Nevertheless, Fulham are a well organised side and lack many others in the side who can get a few goals. And this Leeds team will concede one if not two goals today.

Leeds loss of Tyer Adams has been a huge blow. He has been their key player in screening the defence all season. McKennie and Roca are passengers by comparison and have got found out in the past two games in particular.

Gracia has not been listening to his coaches it would seem either as he has repeated mistakes made last season such as Firpo at left back. Max Wober has got the start at left back today and is one of his first starts there since joining.

He played a lot games there for his previous clubs and I have wanted to see him in this role for Leeds as it looks like he can be a more natural position for him given his height and pace. That is why I am also backing him to have two shots on goal at 85.0.

Gracia has shown with Ayling, Firpo and Kristenson that he likes to see his fullback get forward. Harrison is now on the his natural left wing position. Again I don’t know why it has taken this long for him to be restored here after starting the season in that position and in such good form. His numbers have been worse since he has moved centrally.

That could mean that Wober cuts inside him when he gets forward. He is also on Harrison Reed’s side of the pitch which means a little bit further away from Palhinha who is such a powerful defensive presence for Fulham.

I have gambled on these bets with a higher stake that is optimal. But given the risk reward I am OK with this staking plan.

Bank: €64

The expectation was that City would look to start strong and then try to shut down the game. The risk with this is that players can switch off. Leicester also can rally during games, particularly when they are behind.

So I laid City in this game for €35 which was the remainder of the Betfair balance at various odds, including one of 280.0.

The xG shows the Leicester had the better of it at 1.93 to 1.61. And watching the chances after the game Leicester definately could have gotten a draw. So I am verry happy with this decision as over a ten games this would won a number of times.

The risk with backing Leicester at the moment is that they are on slippery slope and morale has to be low. So I feel like their actual xG is lower as they become fearful of relegation as well as adapt to the new management team.

I have reloaded the account at €100 and now we go again.

This is one of the games which has the feeling of inevitability of a Man City win. City have really hit their stride in the past two months putting in big performances against Villa, Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool as well as Southampton, Bournemouth and Palace. In midweek they also dispatched with Bayern Munich 3-0.

Leicester on the other hand have been the exact opposite. Rodgers has been sacked and they have been terrible in the past two months with seven losses in eight games.

They key factor here is all of this information has been priced into this game. With City trading at 1.14 now on Betfair to win the game and Leicester at 26.0.

So, are there any reasons why Man City might now perform as well as they have been and also any reasons why Leicester might perform better?

Pep May Tinker

Guardiola changes the formation nearly every game. Typically this works out well for them, but occasionally it doesn’t. He has tinkered with the formation right throughout this season and has now found a more settled 3-2-4-1 formation. The balance of players seem to fit better with this formation.

DeBruyne cut a very frustrated figure when subbed off against Bayern. He is 32 in the summer and Pep may also be getting tired of this attitude and might look to offload him in the summer. All it means for this game is that there is a higher chance that he doesn’t start this game.

This game comes after a huge game against Bayern Munich in the UCL. Players will not be as fresh for this game compared to normal. Granted they will have 70% of the ball so can take the game at their pace. But nevertheless it is a risk of rotation for any players carrying knocks (Like Haaland) as well as players managing themselves to prevent injury and also for the second leg.

The second leg of the Bayern game is midweek. So players and Guardiola will want to cruise through this game, probably by scoring two goals in the first half so they can focus on the next game.

City has got knocked out by teams in the Champions League in recent years when they should have gone through, like against Real Madrid last season. Will Guardiola be a little tense himself?

The fact that a few players will be leaving in the summer does not seem to have affected performances the way it has Leicester – assuming that that narrative is correct.

Leicester to Re-Bound?

Dean Smith, John Terry and Craig Shapespire take charge of Leicester this week. That in itself will change the mood of the club. Smith doesn’t have an amzing track record. But his appointment offers a fresh start to some players who felt frustrated under Rodgers. Terry is a players you would imagine will bring respect among the squad for this playing career.

Leicester are not in this position because the players are poor quality. Their record over the past few years speaks for itself. So to my mind it is quite possible for me to see Leicester come out of the blocks fast in this game and potentially catch Man City off guard. They will not be that prepared for Leicester as this is the management first game. So they so also that element of surprise.

The Bet

Leicester’s last two decent games where they won 4-1 both saw them conceded in the first half before coming back to be winning at half time.

So, the main play will be to back Leicester to win 2-0 at HT. But also then to bet in play if Man City score first in the first half then lay Man City to be winning at HT, as well as backing Leicster to be winning at HT.

Bet:

Leicester to be winning 2-0 at HT. €4, 100.0

Bank: €26

Man United have a brutal schedule of games until the end of the season. This has been the case since the start of the year and with Ten Hag playing a similar team each game it’s predictable that performance levels will weaken.

Each game they have been now and then is a big game. The physical and mental strength required will really test the players. This was a fundamental reason for the 7-0 loss to Liverpool and it will not be the last time they concede five goals this season.

Newcastle away is just such a tough game, especially as Newcastle are hunting them down to finish in the top four.

Casemiro is out for this game and the numbers are clear: when he has played they have conceded 0.95 and when he has been absent they have conceded 1.7 goals per game.

Also, Ten Hag has had to readjust his tactics since the Liverpool game as they showed how to get at United and other teams will look to repeat that if they doesn’t change it up. So he has played around with a 4-1-4-1 with Sancho as a 10 in the front four. That tactic has yet to prove itself.

Man United played at home to Southampton in their last league game and were fortunate to come away with a draw. Rashford has been the man in form for United but as he has been overperforming himself his form may drop off.

In the Carabao Cup Final Man United won 2-0. But the game was very even and was effectively a draw on xG. Nick Pope was also absent in goal during that game although it didn’t make a material difference in the goals you would have to say.

Newcastle United have went through a barren spell in front of goal for much of this year. Isak has come in the past two starts and scored three goals. More than that he has looked electric in that time, a man really starting to find his feet in the Premier League.

With Casemiro not playing it might mean that Newcastle midfielders have a higher probability of scoring as there will be more space for them as McTominay or Fred’s numbers are lower in terms of tackles and interceptions per game. I will await the Newcastle teamsheet before betting but will be looking at the likes of Willock and Anderson for value in the to score anytime market.

Bet:

Isak to score 2, 13.0, €4
Willock or Anderson to score*, €4, pending team news.

Bank: €67

The basis of this bet is that Fulham were focusing the rest of their season on the FA Cup and getting dumped out by Man United might mean they suffer a bit of a hangover in this game.

It is quite possible that they react well but more often teams take much of the next game to work out that frustration. With a few key players, Mitro and William, suspended it will be harder.

Added into this Fulham have a few key players away on International duty in the US as Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson played in the second game, so again the travel effects and time difference can often mean players take time to get into the game.

As this game is away from home it also means a little bit more travel to the preparations.

Fulham have also been overperforming this season and might continue their regress as they conceded three goals in each of their last three games and also should have let in three away to Brighton in their last league win.

Bouremouth had been better after their January signing started playing but in the past four games seem to have regressed with 13, 5, 4 and 9 shots on goal but they were up against Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa. So given the quality I think we can cut them some slack as they did well, scoring against Man City, Arsenal (twice) and Liverpool, but blanking against an improving Aston Villa side.

I didn’t get this posted in time for the kick off, but I bet on Bournemouth but went for high odds options:

Bournemouth to be winning 2-0 at HT: 19.0, €4
Bournemouth to win 4-2, 130.0, €5
Solanke to score a hattrick, 120.0, €5

Given Bournemouth had only scored 13 goals in 13 home league games this was probably a bit too far, but I am happy to stand by it. Solanke was too short at 17.0 to score too, and too bit at 120 to score 3.

Bournemouth won the game, coming from behind to win 2-1. However, their xG was 3.14 to 0.6 so they were by far the better side and should have had three goals and on another day would have had four. Perhaps Solanke might have done better on another day. He did score a scrappy goal in this game, but his xG was 1.68 should he should have had a second goal.

All in all, it wasn’t a profitable day but happy with this analysis.

Bet on a Leeds comeback at 1-0 down at 60.0 for €4 and a Leicester win at half time at 120.0 for €3 along with a €4 on Palace -2 at half time. Leeds never showed signs of life in their game with 0.5 xG in the game but did score a consolation late on but.. let’s move on.

Leicester look to be going down. They allowed Palace to have 31 shots on target during their game, absolutely unbelieveable for this Palace team to have that many shots, can only be that there is serious problems in the Leicester camp. I have a firm Rodgers supporter and they do create plenty of chances at times but this has happened a lot recently with Man United having an xG of 4.25 against them. They have now only one point from their past six games and look to lack the fight for the relegation battle that is seeing other teams like Forest and Bournemouth grind out results.

Bank: €75