Month: February 2023

Marco Silva has rotated his squad for the FA Cup games this season against Hull and Sunderland (twice) and I would expect that he will rotate his players again tonight.

It is expected that Mitrovic will play after he missed the past few games with injury, while key defensive midfielder Joao Paulinho will play as he faced a two game ban for reaching 10 yellow cards.

Fulham conceded 17 shots on goal per game home and away to Sunderland in their rotated team. This is higher than what they have conceded in the Premier League this season at 13.35 shots per game. They would have been expected to concede 46 goals from those shots, averaged 1.84 goals per game, but have been substantially overperforming with only 25 conceded, a rate of 1.24. Looking at their goals scored to expected, that is similar.

They have also only conceded five in their last ten Premier League games, and only two against Man City and Man United in the games before that. In fact, they only conceded three goals twice, in a 3-1 loss to West Ham and a 4-1 loss to Newcastle. However, they have been really “riding their luck” in the past few games, particularly against Brighton, and so there can be value in Leeds today to score four and win.

Leeds

Leeds have a new manager who has only been in place one week, overseeing a 1-0 win over Southampton at the weekend. This will have been a big boost to the confidence of the team and to his new managerial reign. Having an FA Cup game to play will also mean it is less stressful and tense for Leeds compared to the league games where they have recently fallen into the relegation zone. So they likely will play with a bit more energy.

Leeds scored five goals away to Cardiff in the third round and three goals away to Accrington Stanley in the fourth round, so they should be feeling good about this game too.

Gracia is known to like to get defence solid first before working on the attack, but in this game he will have a bit more flexibility to try something with attack and will likely tell his forwards that this is their chance to impress.

Leeds have also been under-performing their xG in the league this season, by 2.5 goals, and have conceded more more than they would be expected too. In some of their bigger games against the top six they have also put in strong performances. This game however doesn’t really fall into that category but it is an important game in the eyes of the manager and he will be keen to win and build confidence in the squad and his methods.

Bets:

Leeds Score 4 and Win, 30.0, €20
Leeds to win 4-1, 100.0, €4
Leeds to win 2-0 at HT, 22.0, €4

Remaining Bank: €112

Writing the preview it occurred to me my initial thinking that Southampton were much better placed than Leeds to win this game eroded the confidence in it, but I went ahead with a small bet on the main Southampton striker, Onuachu to score 2 at 30.0. He had two shots on goal but no goals (xG 0.12) and was substituted on 63 minutes. Leeds then went on to nick a winner and win 1-0 late in the game.

The xG on this game also shows that it was a tight game with it balanced at 0.72 to 0.39. The win will give Leeds a confidence boost in themselves and in new manager Gracia.

Overall, I feel that the analysis was fine had Southampton had got a break early in the game the outcome might have been different. The forward was subbed early in the previous game so it was a poor bet from that point of view as his expected minutes were low.

Bet Review: Ings to get a hat-trick, 85.0, €4

West Ham played Nottingham Forest on Saturday and it was a game I had been planning to preview but during the research I looked at West Ham’s xG in the past few games, the pressure on Moyes on this game along with the number of individual errors players are making for West Ham and decided not to preview them. I also expected Antonio to start upfront in place of Ings. When I saw the teams and Ings was starting I felt that the chances of West Ham winning increased significantly and also that Forest were due to lose heavily as they had been fortunate in the past few games along with the opening game against West Ham where they beat them but lost on xG. Forest also were missing their main centre backs along with Aurier and had Shelvey in midfield so less cover for the defense.

So I placed €4 on Danny Ings to score a hat-trick at 85.0. Score 2 was only 15.0 and was a bit too low I thought.

In the end Ings scored two on 70 and 73 minutes, but was then subbed on 84 minutes. West Ham won 4-0 and if he stayed on he would likely have bagged a hat trick.

Bet Review: Draws

I invested €12 in an accumulator of draws on Saturday as all games with the exception of Bournemouth and Man City looked very close and it looked like there was some value there. In the end only Liverpool Palace drew, so it looks like it was a poor evaluation of the games.

Bet Review: Foden to score a hat trick at 120.0, €4

The expectation was that City would score at least four against Bournemouth. I have been following Bournemouth and they were very poor in their win against Wolves and their main defensive midfielder, Lerma was carrying a knock from that game. In addition City have been creating plenty of chances, such as the game last week against Forest, as well as looking focused after their midweek Champions League game. Foden started and I saw he was 120.0 for a hattrick I decided to invest in that.

City won 4-1 and Foden scored one. He was involved in all three of the first three goals and on another day he could have scored the three of them. So I am happy with the chance this bet had and the thinking behind it.

So many tight games on the cards today, but this one appears to have an angle to it. Southampton have some positive momentum, and I think they can mount further pressure on a fearful Leeds team.

Leeds have scored in one game of their last five, twice against Manchester United. Looking at their xG it is not much better with 0.37 against Brentford, 1.12 against Forest, 0.6 against Everton and 0.55 and 1.68 against Man United. Reviewing the scoring highlights of those games also shows that they haven’t had that many good opportunities.

With the new manager Javi Gracia now appointed and will be in charge, there is a feeling that he is trying to prepare as much as possible but so much will be rushed in this game. He says that his team will be perfectly prepared but I can’t see how this will be the case. There has been talk that he has watched the Chelsea Southampton match and knows Southampton’s weaknesses. I find this a bit of a reach.

Ruben Selles is the new Southampon manager, who had his first game against Chelsea, winning 1-0, in a 4-4-2 system. He used six subs during the game showing me that he is a flexible manager. I doubt that he will go with the same system again, it is a very different match to the Chelsea game in many ways.

It is also well known that Gracia is going to target their weaknesses, probably on the wings, but it is another thing to put a plan in place to be successful with this. Selles have been at the club since pre-season and is well respected by the players. Gracia has only arrived this week and likely hasn’t had a training session with his players.

I would like to see Leeds play 4-3-3 as I think they can play better but as there is not much time he will likely play 4-2-3-1 and use width to get in behind Southampton’s back line, particularly Maitland-Niles as he was getting forward on the right side from right back.

Southampton have two new signings upfront who are also unknown quantities. Onuachu (16 goals in 19 games for Genk this season) is 6 feet 7 inches, so it is clear that there will be crosses into him from both sides. Leeds will need to stop these crosses, as they do not have nearly as much height at center back or successful aerial duels. Koch and Cooper have a 64% win rate in the air this season.

Leeds are weak at both full backs this season althought Ayling have been playing fantastic since Jesse Marsch has been sacked, Firpo at left back has traditionally been a liability but has also shown an improvement in form in the past few games.

To give the defence more protection Gracia might opt for a 4-4-2 formation, similar to what Selles has done. A midfield of Aaranson-Adams-McKennie-Harrison with Ngonto and Bamford upfront might give Leeds more stability.

Either way it should be a hard fought match. Last week Southampton picked up seven yellow cards so it will be interesting to see how hard tackling they are in this game. With Adams and McKennie loving getting stuck in as well it should make for a match with a higher chances of cards.

There is so much uncertainty in this game that going with any low odds bets is high risk while high odds might turn out to be low risk.

I’m going to side against change at Leeds this week and back Paul Onuachu to score twice at 30.0 on Betfair for €4.

Waiting on teams but will also consider a bet on either Wober or Ayling for shots on target.

The main bet of the weekend was Bournemouth to beat Wolves but there were various bets placed on that outcome all of which failed to land.

Bournemouth from what I can see played really poorly in this game, only managing five shots on goal, one of which on target. Tavernier scored but seemed to be off the pace in his comeback from injury. Lerma, the main defensive presence in midfield, came off at half time, Ouattara at 58 minutes and Solanke had three shots at goal but none on target, we had him backed to have two shots on target.

Perhaps Bournemouth were nervous about the importance of this game and they froze a little. Passing accuracy was 69% and they have 47 clearances during the game. Feels a bit panicked to have that many.

Jack Stephens made a number of key tackles, blocks and clearances at centre back and without him I would say Wolves would have scored at least one.

Bet Review: Wober to have 2 shots on target, 100, €4

Felt that the Everton Leeds game would be a bit messy and frantic, which might suit Leeds, however Leeds didn’t really show up and only had eight shots at goal, none of which were on target. It is notable that Luke Ayling again had a shot on goal and it was their best chance of the game. That is three games a row in which he has had shots. Leeds seem to not be ready for the relegation fight.

Wober had to be substituted at 48 minutes too, probably injury related which needs to be watched closely as he has been strong at the back for them most of the time. I am not sure why they play him in the centre and Struijk on the left and not vice versa.

Bet Review: Fofana to score two, €6, 12.0

When I saw that David Fofana was starting for Chelsea against Southampton, I had the feeling that he might do a lot better than Havertz and if Chelsea continued to create chances like they have been then he had a better probability to scoring two than 9%. However, this was a feeling and not properly researched. Fofana was subbed at 50 minutes having had two shots at goal (xG 0.06). He was replaced by Raheen Sterling who got into better positions but missed a two very good opportunities (0.87 xG).

Southampton were always going to be better a game after sacking Nathan Jones and that performance against Wolves last week where it was clear they had stopped playing for him.

Potter really needs to have a more consistent line up. He rested Reece James in this game which is always a big loss for this Chelsea team both in defense and attack.

Bet Review: Leicester to win HT/FT, €20

Leicester played Man United away yesterday and lost 3-0 conceding an xG of over 4 goals, which shows how United were able to play through them. They played a high press and high defensive line that goes with it. In the first half they created chances (11 shots) but only two on target and which David DeGea pulled off two fantastic saves. Leicester really should have gone in ahead.

However, while they are good going forward they were weak at their offside trap with United getting in behind them a number of times and which is where the first two goals came from. The partnership between Faes and Soutter needs more time to be able to defend in this way against a team with the pace, dribbling and passing that United have. Faes in particular was at fault for the first goal, misplacing a pass and then rushing out.

Souttar and Castagne are building up partnership on the right hand side as are Barnes and Iheanacho and the other side. It is noteable that United pressed Iheanacho much higher in the second half and he wasn’t able to hold the ball up as well, giving away possession for the their United goal.

For United, they continue to impress. Their all round play is improving and it is interesting to follow Dalot’s as he was allowed to come in field and get forward. He could have had two goals in his past two games now after he hit the crossbar against Leeds.

Bet Review: Trossard to score 2, €4, 25.0

I anticipated that Arsenal would respond well after their midweek loss to Man City. The only risk was if they would be a bit tired given the short turnaround. Looked at backed them to score four but decided to back Trossard to score 2 or more instead as he should have been the players who were the freshest given he didn’t start the midweek games.

However, he only had 40 touches in 68 minutes and no shots and one key pass. (Odegaard had seven key passes, Saka had 6 shots and Nketiah had 5).

Had a feeling that Zinchenko might also score but didn’t place anything on that outcome. It is also notable that he’s now had 11 shots in this past five games. So he should also get another couple of goals this season if he maintains those stats.

Plenty to learn from this weekend which we can use in the coming weeks.

Bank is now at €164. I need to try only placing bets when I have reviewed them in depth.

Wolves have been improving under Lopetegui and have also brought in a lot of new faces to improve the options and quality of the starting eleven and squad. On the face of it, their comeback win against 10 men Southampton last week was a perfect example of the new manager and new players doing the business. This week they’ll be looking to build on the win against Liverpool (3-0) and Southampton (2-1) against Bournemouth.

Digging a bit deeper though the win against Southampton was more to do with the Southampton players not playing for their manager and couldn’t keep the ball or put in any kind of decent defending against a side with ten players and with them at home. Wolves got two scrappy goals and managed to win. Today will be a different challenge for them.

Wolves have been quite solid defensively this season but in the past number of games are starting to concede more chances. They have averaged 14 shots conceded per game in the leageue this season. At home to West Ham (1-0 win) they conceded 16 shots, against Southampton 17 (albeit with 10 men), 13 against Man City (3-0 Loss) and 23 to Liverpool (3-0 win). That’s over 17 shots per game.

What is more, their defending against Southampton before and after the sending off was weak, with at least three weak clearances from crosses into the box, one of which lead to the goal (Dawson error) and others they got away with. And with so many new players it is going to take them time to adapt to the league, the manager and eachother. So I am more interested in Bourenmouth in this fixture and the idea that they might be value to turn them over.

Bournemouth have only averaged 8.5 shots per game in the league this season. Bournemouth too have added quality players in the January transfer window who are making an impact on their team, more so in the attacking sense. In the past three games where these players have started they have averaged 13 shots per game (Nottingham Forest 1-1, Brighton 1-0, Newcastle 1-1).

Solanke is also back in the starting line up last week against Newcastle and he had 5 shots in that game. He has now averaged nearly 3 shots at goal per game in his last seven games. New signing Traore is averaging 2.9 key passes per 90 which is helping creativity and Ouattara has also picked up two assists in his three appearances. Ouattara is also contributing to the attack with 1.38 key passes and 3.45 shots per 90. So I think Bournemouth are value in some of the markets today.

Bournemouth have averaged 17 shots conceded per game in the league this year and that has only marginally come down to under 17 in the past four games. So Wolves scoring at least once should be expected in this game also.

Tavernier is also back in the squad and means more competition upfront in the wide areas for Anthony and Ouattara.

Bets:

Solanke 2 shots on target, 4.9, €14

Ouattara 2 shots on target, 10.0, €14 (waiting for teamnews)

Bournemouth 2-0 HT, 42.0, €4

Bournemouth -1, 15.5, €4

Bournemouth Score 4 and Win, 85, €4

I got the result right but lost too much on this game. The mistake I made was not waiting for the team sheets and then once they were announced over-reacting to them.

In the end I placed bets on Varane to score, €14 at 8.2, however he didn’t play and Betfair do not refund if a player doesn’t play – it used to be the case that they did.

When I saw Maguire start in his place I thought he also had a good chance to score a header for a corner or freekick and placed money on him to score €14 at 13.0 and to have 2 shots on target, €14 at 19.5. This was far too much to place on this selection. In the end he had one header on goal and it was blocked. United average 4.2 corner per game in the league this season but only had 3 in yesterday’s game.

I expected Shaw to be a left back but he played at centre back for much of the game. The bet on him was €4 to have two shots on goal at 55.0. I am OK with this selection but not when he’s a CB.

I saw Ayling had 12 tackles in the first United game and thought he’d be up against Rashford for the majority of this game and would struggle big time. At 4.5 to get a booking I thought that was a solid bet so placed €24 on it. He had 8 tackles in this game and only won three. The two goals United scored also came down his side. However, he didn’t pick up a booking.

Also, I should have realised that he was out of the team under Marsch and his performances in the first game and this game have been upped as he puts in an FU performance to Jesse Marsch. He had two shots in this game and two in the last game. So worth keeping in mind for the next few games.

Max Wober also had two shots on goal (not on target) so might be worth following in the coming games also.

Finally, I saw Licha at 320.0 for 2 shots on goal and placed €2 on that. Happy with that as it should pay off longer term.

The lesson here is to follow Leeds defenders for shots on target, remember the old manager reaction for players and also to wait for team sheets before placing any bets, even if it means the bets do not get published in time on the blog.

Man United had 24 shots on goal against Leeds in the 2-2 draw during the week, while Leeds had 8, if Leeds go out with much the same line up and tactics they will get beaten heavily.

They will be without Pascal Struijk at left back with Firpo possibly coming in. Firpo has been a disaster signing for Leeds. Signed to play left back but now can’t get in the team and Leeds are playing a centre back there in his place. The team have concede 2 goals per 90 when he has played this year and most of those game were against midtable teams. He was playing regularly for Leeds when they were on a bad run last year conceding four (Man City, Spurs, Man United), six to Liverpool and seven to Man City.

I will be waiting for the teamsheets before deciding but the management would better to play Wober and left back and Cooper at centre back if he is fit, currently rated doubtful.

Secondly, McKennie has a poor game in his first start for Leeds last week. His tackling and passing were really poor. Three tackles in this game, winning one, with one of the three in the defensive third. 62% passing suggests he struggled to find his feet. Adams also had a poorer than usual game, with only two tackles, winning one.

That leads me to believe that Leeds were jus too open allowing United too much space to play through them and around them. A look at the heat maps for Bamford, Harrison, Summerville and Aaronson looks a little scattered by comparison to Ngonto who held his position on the left hand side.

Personally, I would like to see them try a 4-3-3 formation today and put Aaronson in with Adam and McKennie. Or Roca and he might add a bit more composure to the team. That is a quality that Jesse Marsch’s side haven’t been described as this year so it is unlikely to be the case today.

United’s Threat

Ten Hag will have learned from this game and be ready attack Leeds with the right formation from the start – if Leeds keep the same formation. ETH showed many times this year that he typically gets his big formation calls right. In the opening games of the season when he was still getting to grips with his players he made poor calls, but since then he has done excellent.

With Eriksson and Casemiro I would expect him to play the same double pivot in Fred and Sabitzer. Ahead of him he will likely have to play Rashford, Fernandez and Sancho assuming Antony is not fully fit. He brought on Sancho for Weghorst in the midweek game and that worked. So he will probably keep Weghorst as he likes consistency and doesn’t tend to tinker week to week.

United have some weak points. While Rashford is on fire, most of the rest are not. Antony, Sancho, Fernandez and Weghorst have not been chipping in with enough goals. Since the World Cup Fernandez has had 28 shots on goal with only six on target, a 21% SoT rate. From those shots he has had four goals which helps to save his record somewhat. He has put in an average of four tackles in the past four league games so he is working hard for the team.

United have also conceded in their past six matches and in four of those games they have conceded goals in the final fifteen minutes. This can be put down to tiredness as they have played 12 games in the past 42 days, with little squad rotation. United also have a trip to Barcalona on Thursday which will be in the mind of ETH when he picks the team.

Initially I was very bullish on a Man United win. However, given the high tempo game Lees have been playing and the high level of fixtures United have been playing it feels like it will be a closer game.

The fact that Leeds are still no where near having a new manager in place is also a problem. Garnacho had the highest xG from the midweek game of 0.72 and he is up against Firpo or Ayling (on right) and Leeds play their same formation (likely) then I will likely place a bet on him. He has 1.29 shots on target per 90 this season, a 41% Sot rate and one goal (20%). He had three shots in 58 minutes midweek.

However ETH subbed on Pellistri to allow Rashford to move to his preferred left wing position, which worked. Given that you’d expect Antony to start if fit and Rashford to start on the left. If Antony isn’t fit he may choose to start Sancho on the right ahead of Pellistri.

My overall view of Leeds hasn’t changed much since writing his overview which worrys for their EPL status.

Dalot had two shots on goal and an assit in the last game. He is 19.0 on Betfair to have two shot on target in this game and 21.0 to score. He’ll have his hands full with Ngonto so might be a bit reluctant to get that far foward in this game, so I think I’ll pass as he also got subbed late on. Varane looked like he wanted to make amends for his own goal and had three shots at goal. He is 100.0 to have two shots on target in this game, which looks like good value.

Assuming Rashford starts on the left and Shaw is a left back, Shaw might have more space when he gets forward and might also have more responsibility to carry the ball forward given they are without Eriksson. He is 55.0 to have two shots on target. There is no liquidity in the to score market so will stick with the shot on target market.

On the Leeds side, as it should be more end to end in this game, Ayling has gotten into goalscoring positions in the past few matches with four shots in the past two games with one on target. (He had 12 tackles in the United game, immense!). Firpo had 11 shots on goal last season but only one on target so will avoid him. However if Wober is left back then back him to have a shot as he has a good record at getting headers and shots off.

Varane to have a shot on target, €14 @ 8.2
Shaw to have two shots on target, €4 @ 55

Other bets subject to team sheets.

Leicester put in a superb performance and were able to put Spurs under pressure enough to win the game comfortably. They were narrow winners on xG 1.41 to 1.12 but Spurs goal was from a lucky break at a corner meaning it was hard to miss and didn’t have any chances of note after that.

Leicester also had a goal ruled out for offside which looked to be onside. Leicester also went ahead 3-1 in the first half so didn’t need to go forward and create further chances. This is an example of how the gamestate can influence the xG numbers.

The second and third goals from Leicester were the result of the high press from Leicester While the last goal was a result from Spurs losing possession in midfield.

The -1 bet won while the 2-0 HT bet lost. Overall, I was in profit from yesterday’s action.

When Spurs scored first I considered backing Leicester 2-1 at HT but decided not to. After the comeback last week against Aston Villa where they also scored three goals in the first half, coming from behind, they had form.

In hindsight, I missed out on the score four and win bet. I decided not to place it before the game but it would have been worth a small bet when Spurs went 1-0 and was probably close to 50.0.

Bet Review: Chelsea West Ham

There were three bets on this game, Felix to score two, Chelsea -1 and Chelsea score 4 and win.

When Chelsea went ahead 1-0 with Felix scoreing after 17 minutes it looked set up to win, however Potter’s side are a long way from putting together this kind of performance. They consistently seem to plateau in the second half of games. The xG was 0.9 to 1.08 in favour of West Ham.

Felix is the main goal threat with an xG of 0.51 having three shots on goal yesterday.

There is also some speculation that Cucurella and Mudryk are not getting along with Cucurella not passing enough to Mudryk. Havertz was upfront but only registered and xG of 0.03, he also has the most amount of offsides in the league this season, with 24, 7 ahead of second place.

With so much change at Chelsea there will be opportunities each game week, so I will continue to monitor them each week.

Spurs have an average expected goals against this season of 1.17 away from home in the Premier League. Missing today is Romero having to serve a suspension and Lloris who is injured. Replacing Lloris is expected to be Fraser Forester who is 34 years old and known as a shot stopper but not for being fast off his line or playing out with his feet, which is typically what Spurs under Conte like to do.

With Romero in the side they have averaged 1.35 goals conceded in league this season, which is surprising.

• Romero: 1.35 ga/g
• Emerson Royal: 1.5 ga/g (14 starts)
• Davison Sanchez: 1.16 (6 starts but excluding this first three games against Wolves, Forest and West Ham, he averages 2.0 per game in 3 games, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Leicester)
• Ivan Perisic: 1.4 ga/g

So despite Spurs last two games where they have kept clean’s against Fulham and Man City, I expect them to concede at least two goals away to Leicester today.

Leicester’s high press last week against Aston Villa helped them score two goals. If Spurs continue with this today, it will likely lead to similar results.

In the first game between these two sides this season Spurs won 6-2, however the xG was 1.99 to 1.59 so it was really a close game. Leicester pushed on looking to score and left space behind which Son was able to capitalise on.

In this game, Leicester should be able to cause Tottenham much more problems as it looks like Rodgers has got the players he needed in to build the right team. Against Villa they showed what they can do, with Tete on the right offering more balance to the attack and threat. This will mean that Spurs can’t protect their right side that much in this game.

Villa’s defending was very poor but it may be the case that Leicester’s attack caused them to look that poor, but the marking by Mingz on two of the goals was really questionable. Leicester’s xG was 2.5, which was one of the highest for an away team in the league this season. You’d imagine that at home they’d has a similar approach and push both full backs high as well as not playing and central defensive midfielder.

This will give Son extra space which they will be on high alert not to do so I will be interested to see how they manage this.

Spurs also have the Champions League round of 16 next week so will need to protect any players that have any niggling injuries which we don’t know about. Perisic has only completed six of his fifteen starts in the league this season for instance.

Leicester has also scored the majority (20/32) goals in the first half, while Spurs have conceded most theirs in the first half, so I’m going to have two bets:

Leicester 2-0 HT, 25.0, €26
Leicester -1, €14, at 8.4

West Ham have consistently given up just under and xG of 2 goals per game at home to the big six teams this season, which we can expect to continue with today.

Chelsea are an improving team given the recent additions to their side along with Reece James returning. They have underperformed their xG in their past five games, albeit marginally in some cases.

Joao Felix is back from suspension along with Mudryk having had more time to adapt the the EPL along with Enzo Fernandez. These are all big players for Chelsea and should mean that their expected goals is higher in this game than in their past four games. Their past two away games to Fulham and Liverpool they had and an xG of 2.4 and 1.84.

So it is likely in my view that they will score three goals in this game and perhaps a fourth if the game gets stretched and Chelsea’s strength off the bench pushes on for more, which is likely.

The team has been announced with Mudryk-Felix-Madueke behind Havertz. Reece James also starts are right back. With this front four there is a strong possibility of a penalty in this game. With Jorginho gone it’ll be interesting to see will Havertz continue or will Felix take them. After his six shots in 61 minutes against Fulham, I have decided to back him to score two or more at 28.0

Bets:

Chelsea -2. €8 at 12.0

Felix to score two or more at 28.0 for €8

Chelsea Score four and win, 22.0, €8

Bank: €244