EPL

Hull look good value to get a result against Ipswich, with the potential that Ipswich have peaked and might now regress back to less consistent results.

Reasons to Oppose Ipswich

Many of their games in the league this season have been very close, but they have won or drawn them, with games so close this is unlikely to continue.

In their most recent game against Huddersfield they drew 1-1, but the consensus among Ipswich fans was that they were lucky to get a point. The xG shows that it was a draw of 1.2 to 1.3, but the goal from Williams was from close range, which can skew it.

Nathan Broadhead was injured against Huddersfield and is unlikely to start against Hull. He is their top scorer with four goals and looks to be in great form.

Sam Morsy will be back in defensive midfield after his suspension against Huddersfield; however, his partner in midfield, Luongo, might struggle to play three games in a week. Or if he starts, he might fade or be replaced by Lee Evans later on.

Ipswich are still playing their second-choice goalkeeper, but he has performed very well so far this season, with the highest number of clean sheets in the division.

It is notable that Harry Clarke, the right back, was replaced at halftime due to poor performance and was replaced by Brandon Williams, who was at fault for the Huddersfield goal but made up for it by scoring himself.

Conor Chaplin, the Ipswich number 10, hasn’t been as prolific this season but is still performing well.

The momentum from their promotion to the Championship might also have been a factor in their great start to this season. With the transfer window now closed for a few weeks, the rest of the teams are getting closer to finding their best eleven, and games should be even more competitive.

Reasons to Support Hull

Hull are unbeaten in their last eight league games. The xG also backs this up that they are not overperforming. They have also not been underperforming too much either.

They have two excellent, talented players on loan from Premier League clubs: Liam Delap from Man City and Tyler Morton from Liverpool.

Morton has only come into the side in the past week, has gotten two assists in two games, and got into two good goal-scoring positions in the last game against Plymouth Argle. He should keep his place in the side against Ipswich and can potentially build on this against Ipswich. He should keep his spot alongside Seri.

Jaden Philogene was signed from Aston Villa and has come in in the last four games, averaging three shots on goal and creating two assists. He played in the Championship with Cardiff last season, scoring four and creating one assist in 37 games. It seems like he is building on his form with Cardiff last season. He can create problems if he starts on the left wing and create opportunities for Connolly up front as well as for himself.

Liam Delap is a big talent on loan from Man City but has only scored twice in nine games and has been rested in the past two games. He might come in for this game on the right wing in place of Adama Traore and his powerful dribbling and shooting can do well against an Ipswich side that may be feeling the effects of three games in a week if they don’t rotate. Delap is a great option for this game.

Traore has started eight of nine games for Hull this season but rarely makes it past 65 minutes. He has one assist and one goal; he also missed a massive chance against Leeds. With Hull typically finishing games stronger than they start, it would suggest that he could be part of the reason for this. It’ll be interesting to see if Hull sticks with him again for this game.

Hull have struggled to create that many goal-scoring opportunities in many games, given the talent they have. With Morton and Philogene playing the past 3 games, that should help them progress the ball forward, as Morton had 400 meters of progressive passing in the last game, a similar start to Seri.

In defense, Lewie Coyle (Right back, captain) and Jacob Greaves (Central Defender) are also available for this game, which should boost the chances.

Bet:

Hull 2-0 HT 32.0, €20
Hull Score 4 and win 42.0, €20

While this is likely to be a tight game given how well Ipswich have been performing, there is not enough evidence to support Hull having such a low percentage chance of winning. With the introduction of Morton, Philogene, Connolly’s form, Delap’s ability, and the return of key defenders, Hull can put in a competitive performance while also having more talented players. The question is: Can Liam Rosenior continue to mold this side into a title-challenging one and create more goal-scoring opportunities? At these odds, I think it’s possible. The recent xG does not support this, so it is a bit speculative.

Two Higher Percentage Opportunites in this one to my eye:

Alex Iwobi to have 2 shots on target 18.0 €20

Marc Cucurella to have 2 shots on target, 100.0 €5

Iwobi

Marco Silva is a big fan of Iwobi, having signed him from Arsenal at Everton and now at Fulham. He can play right or left midfield as well as in attack. Against Norwich last week, he played 90 minutes on the right side of the forward line, with Jimenez in the centre. He had three shots on goal, with one on target, which he scored.

He has competition in that position from Harry Wilson and Bobby Reid. However, looking at Bobby Reid’s minutes, he has only completed 90 minutes for Fulham in 2023 once. Wilson has been the preferred option since he got his chance at the end of last season, where he started nine games on the right wing, as well as doing so five times this season. The issue is that he has not been that effective in that position, which could be the reason why Silva has decided to invest in this area by signing Iwobi. He got his only assist this season in the last game, which was played in left midfield, a more natural position for him. Adama Traore is the only other natural option on the right-hand side, and he is ruled out for this game. So Iwobi shouldn’t be too much of a minutes risk, barring injury or a change of game state, like a sending off.

If he plays in this position against Chelsea tonight, he will likely be up against Levi Colwill, Ian Maatsen, or Cucurella. Given how poorly Cucurella has played linking up with Mudryk earlier this season, as well as how well he played against Mitoma last week, I’d expect that he will continue at right back against Fulham, with Colwill moving across and Silva pairing with Disasi at center back. Colwill is not going to get forward as much as Cucurella and is defensively stronger, but he may have to come across into the center at times if Chelsea get caught on the counterattack and Cucurella is out of position.

Given the average age of Fulham (very high, circa 30 years of age) compared with Chelsea (very young, circa 24 years of age), the risk of getting caught on the counter is lower, it has to be said.

During his Arsenal days, Iwobi’s attacking stats were impressive, with 1.6 shots per 90 with 40% of them (0.64/90) on target. He played further away from goal in the past few years with Everton, who are also a more defensive side, and still managed 1.29 shots on target per 90 from 2.57 shots (50% success).

So to see Iwobi priced at 18.0 (5.5%) against a side who are averaging 12 shots conceded per game, assuming he plays on the right side of the attacking front three (Fulham rarely change from this formation), looks high. Given Iwobi’s stats, I’d estimate it at 20–33% (average: 26.5%) or 4.0. So €20 at 18.0 has a positive expected value long-term. If his starting position is confirmed at 19.00, then I may increase the stake, also evaluating the Chelsea defensive side.

Marc Cucurella

Cucurella was priced at 100.0 for two shots on target against Fulham. Given his huge performance against Brighton / Mitoma last week it looks like he could be back to some of his best form and so the possibility is that he could revert to his earlier form for Brighton where he is also an attacking threat.

I don’t consider Cucurella a minutes risk given the injuries to Chelsea full backs. Chelsea have the highest possession of any team in the league this season and he will be a key player for them tonight to progress the ball up the sides, as either Colwill or Disasi will be the other full back and are not as progressive as he can be.

Against Brighton he didn’t get too far forward which was understandable given the speed and dribbling ability of Mitoma, but against William or Wilson of Fulham and given Chelsea’s limitations on the other side, he will need to offer attacking and progression in this game.

So what might be possible?

He averaged 0.75 shots per 90 while at Getafe with 25% on target.

Under Potter at Brighton his numbers dropped to 0.52 shots per 90 with 16% on target. (Last season he never got into a run of form so I am disregarding that as he potential for this team).

Given his Brighton numbers, he likely needs to be close to 100.0 So what might be different in this game?

1. He should be higher up the pitch against Fulham with Chelsea having more of the ball.
2. He looked impressively defensively against Brighton with a real warrior spirit. He should carry that into this game and be more attack minded.
3. Chelsea are missing Jackson and Pochettino has said they might play without a striker. When I hear this, I hear that more will be required from the rest of the team. Chelsea’s defenders have averaged a high number of shots per 90 this season with:
   James 1.08; Gusto 0.64; Colwill 1.02; Silva 0.33; Disasi 1.0; Chilwell 1.79 (has been playing further forward)

Reese James and Disasi are priced at 18 and 19.0 and it is likely that Cucurella should be closer to that range.

So far, I have placed €15 at 100.0 but will reassess when team news is in.

Edit: Bet Review

Iwobi didn’t start but came on at 54 minutes and had two shots within 10 minutes, but failed to hit the target and had little impact after that. Nevertheless, a bet to follow this weekend.

The other bets never looked like coming in. To avoid.

The Championship is well known for its competitiveness, and we will be betting on that here with Huddersfield to upset Ipswich today.

There are five pieces of information that suggest Huddersfield are undervalued in this game:

1. New manager bounce: Darren Moore appointed in the past week for Huddersfield
2. Moore managed Sheffield Wednesday last year in League Two, drawing twice with Ipswich last season
3. Hudderfield played well in his first opening game away to Coventry, finishing 1-1. The match saw Moore adapt a 5-3-2 system.
4. Ipswich are without Sam Morsy who is one of their key men, with 3.88 tackles per 90, 1.5 blocks per 90 and also being a progressive passer, helping their attacks.
5. Huddersfield have no significant players out.

Bet:

Huddersfield 2-0 HT @ 28.0 €20
Huddersfield Score 4 and win @ 34.0 €20

This game looks evenly priced at the team level. So I am looking for value in the player to have 2 shots on goals or more market.

Mario Lemina to have two shots on target 48.0

Mario Lemina has played three games in midfield for Wolves this season, averaging 2.67 shots per 90. Most of these shots have not been on target this season, but his career average shows a shot-on-target percentage of 23%. So it’s quite possible that he can get back to his normal levels.

On the negative side, Palace have only allowed 4 shots on goal in total in their opening three games. Last season, they averaged 11 per game. They have added Jefferson Lerma to the central midfield, which has helped, but it still looks like this number is too low, and it should also average closer to 8 to 9 shots per game.

Tommy Doyle has also signed for Wolves so this is a risk to Lemina’s minutes.

Wolves have signed a replacement for Matheus Nunez in the form of Jean-Ricner Bellegarde on Friday evening. It more likely that Lemina would start in this away game and Bellegarde would be on the bench.

Lemina is priced at 48.0 (or just over 1%) to have two shots on goal during this game.

Matt Doherty to have two shots on target 50.0

Doherty is a right back who has returned to Wolves and played midweek in the Cup game, where he scored two goals and in doing so demonstrated that he is still the game full back he was during this first Wolves spell as well as with Spurs, who likes to attack the opponent’s box at every opportunity.

During his career he has averaged 0.28 shots on goal per 90 minutes.

Wolves have been defending poorly this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Semado is dropped in favour of Doherty for this game to help give Wolves more attacking options as well as help improve the defense.

Rayan Ait Nouri is the most likely started at left back and he is priced at 15.0 to have two shots on goals so if Doherty starts he is value at 48.0.

Gary O’Neill might even change his system to a wing back system which might push Doherty even further forward. He has played with a back four in each game (3) this season, but it can’t be ruled out. More width might help to get in behind Palace’s defence.

€20 on both Doherty and Lemina to have two shots on goal.

Southampton are a club where a huge amount of player turnover is going on, and with the transfer window due to close on Friday evening, this is only going to continue and increase. Players who have played an important role in their start this season are either subject to bids or have been sold, such as Che Adams and Nathan Tella.

They are bringing in new players such as Ryan Fraser, Mason Holgate, Flynn Downes and Ross Stewart. Holgate is expected to start as Jack Stephens was injured in their last game. This makes their side weaker on the face of it as Holgate struggled in an Everton side who leaked goals.

Southampton manager Russell Martin will likely be preoccupied with transfer dealings in the lead up to this game, more so than Sunderland, who by contract look to be a more settled squad and set-up.

Another factor is that Southampton have been over performing in their results this season, scoring 4 more goals than they would be expected to and this includes the two penalties in the Norwich game.

Sunderland, by contrast, have been marginally underperforming their expected goals scored and goals conceded.

Additional considerations are that Sunderland are at home which should help them in preparation to the game given the attention of the transfer window on Friday night, the long trip from Southampton to Sunderland, and it is also an early kick-off.

Sunderland don’t tend to score many goals at home, averaging 1.6 goals per game last season at home. Southampton have conceded seven goals in four games so far this season, and they would be fortunate not to concede more in their win against QPR last week.

Southampton dominate possession in their games this season, averaging 71%. Sunderland have averaged 59%. The risk factor I see here for Southampton is that if they have less of the ball in this game compared to their first four games, they are at higher risk for a red card.

They have averaged 4.75 yellow cards per game, with the majority of them coming from defensive players.

Weighing all of this up and looking at how this has been priced on the markets, I see value in a Sunderland home win by two goals.

Bets:

Sunderland 2-0 HT, 20.0 (€10)
Sunderland Score 4 and Win 21.0 (€15)
Jobe Bellingham Score two or more 27.0 (€6)

Southampton v Norwich Preview

Norwich had the most complete performance of any side in the first round of games as they dominated the game against Hull. They had the challenge of coming back from a goal down and continued to the final minute, where they got the winner.

With so much flux in clubs, the feeling I am getting is that Norwich manager Wagner has got this team playing how he wants them to and that they are playing as a team. They have a reasonably talented team, which is also important.

As a relegated club, Southampton are experiencing a turnover in squad personnel, with Ward-Prowse the latest player to leave. This will be a big loss and add to the flux. Manager Russell Martin will also be looking to implement his own style of play within this change, which will bring its own challenges.

Southampton still have a defense that they got relegated with and a confidence issue from getting relegated. They have the challenge of only having two wins at home last season.

These are the main factors that indicate to me that Norwich are the true favorites for this game.

The blog is backing:

Norwich -1 (11.0 €20), Norwich 2-0 half time (30.0, €20) and Norwich -2 (33.0, €11).

Other bets:

Birmingham HT/FT (6.0, €30)

Huddersfield Score four and Win (50.0 €15), TNHT (36.0, €5)

Leeds are in freefall. With no Tyler Adams in the mideld and with McKennie still adapting the life in the Premier League they are starting to ship goals. Roca and McKennie are just not the right players to screen the midfield or to play the right progressive passes to the forward players.

Looking at the stats, McKennie improved his number of tackles, putting in 3 in the last game against Fulham, winning 2, but overall he tends to go missing in games and isn’t a natural defensive midfielder. You can see the majority of his tackles are in the midfield third. Roca is a similar type player, with supposedly a better passing range, however he only averages 1.1 key pass per 90.

Leeds have conceded 20 goals in their last six league games and based on xG they should have conceded 14. So how to account for this difference? I am generally a firm believer in xG. However in this context it is more likely that players “heads drop” and then shots that are typically harder, are now easier for the opposition as they get more space.

Leicester have been very erratic this season. They have typically created chances but have typically let in plenty of chances. In some games they have had no creativity whatsoever, which has been hard to understand – but they have players who can create – this is the point I will be focusing on here.

With new management and a win against Wolves in their last game, which gets them out of the relegation zone, it will have given them a confidence boost. They can build on this against a poor Leeds team. Away from home it can often be easier as you are away from the heavy expectation of the home fans. When things are going OK or well it is a bonus, but when the whole stadium can sense the desperate situation it can affect the whole team.

The second half collapse at home against Crystal Palace as well as the collapse in the last home game against Liverpool sets alarm bells ringing. There really no options in the squad that they haven’t tried and now they are back to the worst points of the Biesla era with many of the same faces still playing.

Meslier’s confidence must be low after the amont of goals he has conceded in the past few games. At one point he had faced ten shots on goal and conceded ten goals. He is a quality goalkeeper with a lot of experience so I’d don’t expect that to continue but his form is affected.

I’m looking for the value options in this one. So I’ve gone for a few speculative bets in a hope of reaching the €10,000 mark.

Bets:

2-2 HT Score, 85.0, €4

Leicester to win, 6-0, 7-1, 7-2 – 1000.0 – €28 staked in total on this

Bank: €21

Happy hunting.

Fulham won the game 2-1 and narrowing won on xG 1.44 to 1.07 which I was anticipating, as in the preview I said they should conceded 1 to 2 goals. Fulham did look to isolate William against the right back and it did happen a lot with him attempting 11 dribbles during the game, the highest out of anyone in this game, and five of them were on the edge of the box.

However, he wasn’t able to make the most of this, contributing to zero key passes in the game. He did have three shots during the game, Fulham’s second highest after Pereira, but they were all from outside the box. All in all, the was an OK bet, but I expected a bit better from him.

Wober did get forward on occasion and did have a few touches in the Fulham penalty area, but had no key passes and no shots during the game. At 85.0 there is margin for error and overall I would still rate this a profitable play. He had 72 touches during the game, Leed’s second highest, but the majority was on the left touchline. He also had the most passes for Leeds at 60.

Leeds created very little and will be the focus on today’s bet when they play Leicester.

Having reviewed the teams two bets have stood out:

1. William to score at 4.9 (€4) and William to score two at 27.0 (€14)
2. Max Wober to have two shots on target at 85.0 (€14)

William has had five shots in the last game against Everton. So it would appear that he is taking on more responsibility for scoring in the absence of Mitrovic. His xG was only 0.22 off those shots so the quality of the shots was low.

Nevertheless, Fulham are a well organised side and lack many others in the side who can get a few goals. And this Leeds team will concede one if not two goals today.

Leeds loss of Tyer Adams has been a huge blow. He has been their key player in screening the defence all season. McKennie and Roca are passengers by comparison and have got found out in the past two games in particular.

Gracia has not been listening to his coaches it would seem either as he has repeated mistakes made last season such as Firpo at left back. Max Wober has got the start at left back today and is one of his first starts there since joining.

He played a lot games there for his previous clubs and I have wanted to see him in this role for Leeds as it looks like he can be a more natural position for him given his height and pace. That is why I am also backing him to have two shots on goal at 85.0.

Gracia has shown with Ayling, Firpo and Kristenson that he likes to see his fullback get forward. Harrison is now on the his natural left wing position. Again I don’t know why it has taken this long for him to be restored here after starting the season in that position and in such good form. His numbers have been worse since he has moved centrally.

That could mean that Wober cuts inside him when he gets forward. He is also on Harrison Reed’s side of the pitch which means a little bit further away from Palhinha who is such a powerful defensive presence for Fulham.

I have gambled on these bets with a higher stake that is optimal. But given the risk reward I am OK with this staking plan.

Bank: €64

The expectation was that City would look to start strong and then try to shut down the game. The risk with this is that players can switch off. Leicester also can rally during games, particularly when they are behind.

So I laid City in this game for €35 which was the remainder of the Betfair balance at various odds, including one of 280.0.

The xG shows the Leicester had the better of it at 1.93 to 1.61. And watching the chances after the game Leicester definately could have gotten a draw. So I am verry happy with this decision as over a ten games this would won a number of times.

The risk with backing Leicester at the moment is that they are on slippery slope and morale has to be low. So I feel like their actual xG is lower as they become fearful of relegation as well as adapt to the new management team.

I have reloaded the account at €100 and now we go again.