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22X On Ait-Nouri to Score Anytime Against Everton

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Wolves play away to Everton on Boxing Day with a new manger in Julen Lopetegui looking to improve their results.

In his first game in charge in the League Cup this week they won 2-0 at home to Gillingham. They showed many of their existing issues: controlling the game but not threatening to score.

Lopetegui brought Rayan Ait-Nouri on in the second half and played him on the left wing. This was an unusual position for him as in the vast majority of his games for the old manger (Bruno Large) he played in left wing back or left back, before being dropped.

He is a much more attacking minded player and at 21 years old it could be that, as has been done in the past (e.g Gareth Bale), to play young attaching players in defence to give them experience before playing them higher up the pitch.

Ait-Nouri has only scored three goals for Wolves in nearly sixty games, so his price to score against is inline with this record. He is 22.0 to score against Everton. However, that is the price as a left back. If he plays in left wing like he did in midweek his chances of scoring should be similar to someone in the position like Daniel Podence (6.0).

Ait-Nouri also scored from that position in midweek and you can see from his run after he won the ball that he was given the freedom by the manager to get into the penalty box to score. He did this and also scored.

Everton have been conceding a lot of chances in recent times losing on expected goals in their last six games.

It will be difficult to know how sharp Everton players are after the break, but in general Frank Lampard has a lot to prove as a manager and so until he proves he can build a team that can play and defend I will be betting agains them.

12 points (of 92) on Ait Nouri to score anytime at 22.0 on Betfair. This is a large amount to stake on this bet as it is not known if he will start the game, or play in that position, but from what I saw in midweek, and know of the player and that Wolves need to change things up dramatically if they are to improve, this looks a likely scenario.

Bet Review: Man United v Burnley

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I decided to place a bet on Burnley to be winning 2-0 at HT (55.0 Betfair)
and also to be winning at HT and FT (17.5 Betfair) for €4 each as I thought it
was likely that Burnley would show the ambition and motivation to play (as
Company is their manager and these are likely his characteristics) and that
they might catch Man United cold as they had been playing regularly and
winning, while the United line-up was going to be a mix of players who went to
the WC and players who didn’t and that those players might take time to get
their match’s sharpness back.

In the end, United won 2-0. Both sides are similar number of chances but the
Players who played in the World Cup scored the goals and made the difference.

We are learning more about Ten Hag style of play and he is showing to me
that he is a cautious manager who values stability and lowrisk-taking.

It is also interesting to evaluate the mood of the team now that Ronaldo has left.
This will likely give some players more freedom to play. Rashford looked like
he is realising the chance to step up. Meanwhile, the opposite might be the
case of Sancho, whose career is starting to stagnate. It will be also
interesting to see if Ten Hag gives Fernandes more freedom to get into the box
and score. United are going to be short on goal threats, so he and Rashford
will need to contribute.

2022 Fifa World Cup Preview

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Bets: Argentina to win 2-0, 16.5 (Betfair)

Stake: 4 points

Analysis:

France had conceded in each game before the Morocco game, with an expected goals against of:

1.7 v Poland; 2.0 v England; 0.9 v Morroco = 4.6 xGA, but they actually conceded 2 goals.

Their main goal scorer is Mbappe who has scored 5 and has an XG of 3.4. In Ligue 1 last year, he scored 28 goals compared with an Xg of 26.4, so he did marginally better but only marginally. He might play best in big games, but most likely he has been slightly overperforming.

Griezeman has been quietly influencing games, with the main attention being taken by Mbappe. He has three assists (xA of 3.54). His role has got more exposure after his impressive run to initiate the opening goal against Morocco and his superb assist for Giroud in the quarter final against England.

Deschamps has also managed the selection, tactics and subs very well in each game. There have been no situations where they were not in comfortable control of the game (excluding the loss to Tunisa as they had already qualified).

Something that has also come out of the semi-final is that the Moroccan starting lineup had at least six players carrying a knock or injury; three of them initially named in the team either did not start or were subbed before the second half began. Despite this, once Morocco switched back to their back four, they started creating a lot more chances.

Argentina will likely replicate the tactics of Morocco and England to create changes and to stop Mbappe. Griezeman and Messi have free roles, so it will be interesting to see how both side adapt.

For me, Messi is playing more freely than in past finals, and Alvarez is on form. The French are extremely tournament-savvy, and it will be a close game. However, I’m colling it as Argentina -1 within 90 minutes.

Update: Final score in normal time was 2-2. I cashed out to cover the stake of €4 in the second half so no profit or loss on this game. Screenshot to follow.

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