Leicester to Pile Misery on Leeds

Leeds are in freefall. With no Tyler Adams in the mideld and with McKennie still adapting the life in the Premier League they are starting to ship goals. Roca and McKennie are just not the right players to screen the midfield or to play the right progressive passes to the forward players.

Looking at the stats, McKennie improved his number of tackles, putting in 3 in the last game against Fulham, winning 2, but overall he tends to go missing in games and isn’t a natural defensive midfielder. You can see the majority of his tackles are in the midfield third. Roca is a similar type player, with supposedly a better passing range, however he only averages 1.1 key pass per 90.

Leeds have conceded 20 goals in their last six league games and based on xG they should have conceded 14. So how to account for this difference? I am generally a firm believer in xG. However in this context it is more likely that players “heads drop” and then shots that are typically harder, are now easier for the opposition as they get more space.

Leicester have been very erratic this season. They have typically created chances but have typically let in plenty of chances. In some games they have had no creativity whatsoever, which has been hard to understand – but they have players who can create – this is the point I will be focusing on here.

With new management and a win against Wolves in their last game, which gets them out of the relegation zone, it will have given them a confidence boost. They can build on this against a poor Leeds team. Away from home it can often be easier as you are away from the heavy expectation of the home fans. When things are going OK or well it is a bonus, but when the whole stadium can sense the desperate situation it can affect the whole team.

The second half collapse at home against Crystal Palace as well as the collapse in the last home game against Liverpool sets alarm bells ringing. There really no options in the squad that they haven’t tried and now they are back to the worst points of the Biesla era with many of the same faces still playing.

Meslier’s confidence must be low after the amont of goals he has conceded in the past few games. At one point he had faced ten shots on goal and conceded ten goals. He is a quality goalkeeper with a lot of experience so I’d don’t expect that to continue but his form is affected.

I’m looking for the value options in this one. So I’ve gone for a few speculative bets in a hope of reaching the €10,000 mark.


2-2 HT Score, 85.0, €4

Leicester to win, 6-0, 7-1, 7-2 – 1000.0 – €28 staked in total on this

Bank: €21

Happy hunting.

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