Having reviewed the teams two bets have stood out:
- William to score at 4.9 (€4) and William to score two at 27.0 (€14)
- Max Wober to have two shots on target at 85.0 (€14)
William has had five shots in the last game against Everton. So it would appear that he is taking on more responsibility for scoring in the absence of Mitrovic. His xG was only 0.22 off those shots so the quality of the shots was low.
Nevertheless, Fulham are a well organised side and lack many others in the side who can get a few goals. And this Leeds team will concede one if not two goals today.
Leeds loss of Tyer Adams has been a huge blow. He has been their key player in screening the defence all season. McKennie and Roca are passengers by comparison and have got found out in the past two games in particular.
Gracia has not been listening to his coaches it would seem either as he has repeated mistakes made last season such as Firpo at left back. Max Wober has got the start at left back today and is one of his first starts there since joining.
He played a lot games there for his previous clubs and I have wanted to see him in this role for Leeds as it looks like he can be a more natural position for him given his height and pace. That is why I am also backing him to have two shots on goal at 85.0.
Gracia has shown with Ayling, Firpo and Kristenson that he likes to see his fullback get forward. Harrison is now on the his natural left wing position. Again I don’t know why it has taken this long for him to be restored here after starting the season in that position and in such good form. His numbers have been worse since he has moved centrally.
That could mean that Wober cuts inside him when he gets forward. He is also on Harrison Reed’s side of the pitch which means a little bit further away from Palhinha who is such a powerful defensive presence for Fulham.
I have gambled on these bets with a higher stake that is optimal. But given the risk reward I am OK with this staking plan.
Bank: €64