Man United have a brutal schedule of games until the end of the season. This has been the case since the start of the year and with Ten Hag playing a similar team each game it’s predictable that performance levels will weaken.
Each game they have been now and then is a big game. The physical and mental strength required will really test the players. This was a fundamental reason for the 7-0 loss to Liverpool and it will not be the last time they concede five goals this season.
Newcastle away is just such a tough game, especially as Newcastle are hunting them down to finish in the top four.
Casemiro is out for this game and the numbers are clear: when he has played they have conceded 0.95 and when he has been absent they have conceded 1.7 goals per game.
Also, Ten Hag has had to readjust his tactics since the Liverpool game as they showed how to get at United and other teams will look to repeat that if they doesn’t change it up. So he has played around with a 4-1-4-1 with Sancho as a 10 in the front four. That tactic has yet to prove itself.
Man United played at home to Southampton in their last league game and were fortunate to come away with a draw. Rashford has been the man in form for United but as he has been overperforming himself his form may drop off.
In the Carabao Cup Final Man United won 2-0. But the game was very even and was effectively a draw on xG. Nick Pope was also absent in goal during that game although it didn’t make a material difference in the goals you would have to say.
Newcastle United have went through a barren spell in front of goal for much of this year. Isak has come in the past two starts and scored three goals. More than that he has looked electric in that time, a man really starting to find his feet in the Premier League.
With Casemiro not playing it might mean that Newcastle midfielders have a higher probability of scoring as there will be more space for them as McTominay or Fred’s numbers are lower in terms of tackles and interceptions per game. I will await the Newcastle teamsheet before betting but will be looking at the likes of Willock and Anderson for value in the to score anytime market.
Bet:
Isak to score 2, 13.0, €4
Willock or Anderson to score*, €4, pending team news.
Bank: €67