The basis of this bet is that Fulham were focusing the rest of their season on the FA Cup and getting dumped out by Man United might mean they suffer a bit of a hangover in this game.
It is quite possible that they react well but more often teams take much of the next game to work out that frustration. With a few key players, Mitro and William, suspended it will be harder.
Added into this Fulham have a few key players away on International duty in the US as Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson played in the second game, so again the travel effects and time difference can often mean players take time to get into the game.
As this game is away from home it also means a little bit more travel to the preparations.
Fulham have also been overperforming this season and might continue their regress as they conceded three goals in each of their last three games and also should have let in three away to Brighton in their last league win.
Bouremouth had been better after their January signing started playing but in the past four games seem to have regressed with 13, 5, 4 and 9 shots on goal but they were up against Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa. So given the quality I think we can cut them some slack as they did well, scoring against Man City, Arsenal (twice) and Liverpool, but blanking against an improving Aston Villa side.
I didn’t get this posted in time for the kick off, but I bet on Bournemouth but went for high odds options:
Bournemouth to be winning 2-0 at HT: 19.0, €4
Bournemouth to win 4-2, 130.0, €5
Solanke to score a hattrick, 120.0, €5
Given Bournemouth had only scored 13 goals in 13 home league games this was probably a bit too far, but I am happy to stand by it. Solanke was too short at 17.0 to score too, and too bit at 120 to score 3.
Bournemouth won the game, coming from behind to win 2-1. However, their xG was 3.14 to 0.6 so they were by far the better side and should have had three goals and on another day would have had four. Perhaps Solanke might have done better on another day. He did score a scrappy goal in this game, but his xG was 1.68 should he should have had a second goal.
All in all, it wasn’t a profitable day but happy with this analysis.
Bet on a Leeds comeback at 1-0 down at 60.0 for €4 and a Leicester win at half time at 120.0 for €3 along with a €4 on Palace -2 at half time. Leeds never showed signs of life in their game with 0.5 xG in the game but did score a consolation late on but.. let’s move on.
Leicester look to be going down. They allowed Palace to have 31 shots on target during their game, absolutely unbelieveable for this Palace team to have that many shots, can only be that there is serious problems in the Leicester camp. I have a firm Rodgers supporter and they do create plenty of chances at times but this has happened a lot recently with Man United having an xG of 4.25 against them. They have now only one point from their past six games and look to lack the fight for the relegation battle that is seeing other teams like Forest and Bournemouth grind out results.