Brighton v Palace
Palace demise was overhyped in my view and I placed €4 on Palace to be 2-0 up at half time at 70.0. Palace did have the majority of the chances in the first half as well as in the game itself winning the xG 0.59 to 1.21 with the better xG chances being created in the First half.
Brighton went into half time 1- 0 so the bet didn’t land, but I am happy with the bet and if the game repeated it had a strong chance of landing.
Forest v Newcastle – Isak hat-trick – 70.0 – €4
Isak is coming into the team recently and scored in the previous game and from reports was almost unplayable at times. Based on this and also that Forest have been playing poorly and are missing so many important defensive players, I liked the look of an Isak hat trick at 70.0.
Isak finished the game with 2 goals as well as hitting the bar (via a deflection) in the first half. His xG for the game was 1.59. All in all this was a great bet.
Brentford v Leicester – Leicester to win 2-1 at HT (100.0 €2), Iheanacho to score 2 (24.0 €4)
Leicester won the game on xG 0.48 v 1.42 which backs up the analysis to bet on them. They have created plenty of chances in their past two games but haven’t put them away. I thought Rogers would keep Iheanacho upfront and decided to back him to score 2. But actually Daka was preferred and Iheanacho was on the bench. I made the mistake again of not waiting for the team sheets and so lost this bet.
Leicester have had a habit of conceding and then scoring in the league in the past few games so when Brentford scored I placed a bet for Leicester to be winning (2-1 at HT). However, they didn’t create much in the time with only one chance of note. Given the odds this bet was fine.
Wolves v Leeds – Leeds to be winning 2-0 at HT, €4, 27.0
Wolves have such an unsettled side it really did wave a number of red flags. The new manager Lopetegui is now dropping players he signed like Sarabia and bringing in players he didn’t fancy initially like Podence. Neto was also back in and so the Wolves line up is resembling the team under Lage. This also signals to me that his messages are not transferring well with the squad.
Looking at the Leeds line up they had a much more settled look to them which can be a bonus. Also with both teams under pressure of relegation it can often mean that it is harder to play at home in these games and easier to play away. So I felt that Leeds were really the favourites in this game and thought they might win the first half.
The game was 1-0 to Leeds at HT and 4-2 at FT. Leeds didn’t create many other chances in the first half but it did score again early in the second half. The probability of this bet winning was much lower than 27.0, so a decent punt.
Arsenal v Palace – Palace TNHT 90.0, €4, Palace Score 4 and win, 280.0
I fully expected Arsenal to win and began the research looking at players for a potential hat trick such as Martinelli. However, the odds were too short and I felt obliged to back Palace given the odds available. They might have scored early and then the odds would have tumbled and I could have laid out for a profit. Zaha did hit the post at nil nil but Arsenal soon clicked into gear and ran out 4-1 winners.
The €100 I started with in December has now reached zero. I reached a high of over €1,000 after one month but really poor staking in February meant I lost €450 when I probably should have only lost €50.
So I will be re-loading now and aiming to do better with the staking of the bets. I am happy with the picks. The odds are high so the wins are not frequent. I probably can win every fifth or sixth bet but need to be making 2-3 well researched bets each week for this strategy to pay dividends long term.
I love the international breaks so will be keeping an eye on the games and researching potential opportunities.