Arsenal play Fulham today with it set for Gabriel Martinelli to score at least twice at 17.0 or three times at 120.0.
Martinelli has averaged three shots on goal a game in this past ten games at home in the league (excluding Man City).
Nketiah and Jesus are out with Trossard being a doubt. Arteta has said that he can play a winger or a false nine as a forward. In games this Martinelli has effectively played as a forward even though he is officially playing on the left wing or forward position, even with Nketiah in the side. We can see this from his Brighton heatmap in this review from January.
Fulham have only kept two clean sheets at home in the league this season, averaging 1.3 goals conceded in their 13 games. The shut outs were to Everton and Forest and their xG in those games show that they gave up enough chances to let in a goal.
We also know that Fulham have been hugely overperforming in their expected goals conceded, by 15 goals.
In their two matches this season with their defensive midfielder Joao Palhinha they conceded 3.5 goals (4 at home to Newcastle and 3 away to Brentford).
Martinelli is also slightly underpeforming his xG this season at home with 12.85 vs 11 goals. He scored two goals in the 4-1 win at home to Everton two games ago.
Arsenal also won the away game 2-1 with an xG of 2.47 v 0.93.
On the negative side, Fulham have only not scored at home twice this season (Everton, Spurs) so will prove a threat. Their xG in the past four games has been overperforming with a number of excellent long range goals from Soloman and Palhinha.
Arsenal also had the Europa League game away to Sporting on Thursday, drawing 2-2 in a competitive game. Martinelli played the full game and had two shots saved. One was from a fantastic run from midfield, beating a number of players along the way which would have been one of the goals of the season, so the man is in fine form.
All in all, if Martinelli gets the breaks during the game he can bag a hatrick. Fulham’s team are excellent at anticipating the play, but with so much threat from different positions in this Arsenal side that will really push their ability to anticipate what’s going to happen. This will lead to chances and if Martinelli is the player closest to goal, then he can bag a few goals.
He is priced at 17% probability to score. Give than Fulham will likely concede 3 if not 4 goals, I think he should be a bit lower to score two of them. So placing a big percentage of the budget on this outcome.
Martinelli to score 2, €6, 17.0
Martinelli to score 3, €5, 120.0