Leeds haven’t showed much going forward yet under their new manager. Their best possession spell was in the Cup game where they switched to a 4-3-3 formation, but in the game last week Gracia reverted back to 4-2-3-1. They have not scored in three of their last four league games and this is in line with their xG.
Brighton under DeZerbi are flying and have really adapted well to his demands. They are an outside bet for top four. They have absolutely dominated their last four league games, generating an average xG of 2.85, three of those games were at the Amex Stadium but even away to Palace it was 2.65 and Leeds are a much less solid team than Palace.
Leeds have felt brittle this season under Marsch and Gracia has a reputation for being defensively solid and while it feels like he has improved them, it is really too early to say. The win against Southampton was a very scrappy game in which they got a piece of luck in their goal. Against a Chelsea side last week that has also been struggling they created an xG of 1.87.
It is hard to spot much value in the markets given as most Brighton’s form has been priced in already.
Fishing for value I am going to back a guy who gets forward a lot and has a record of shooting to have a shot on target. Pervis Estupinan has had shots on goal in eight of the last nine league games. None of those shots have been on target. Seven of his eleven shots have been outside the box.
He is 4.4 to have a shot on target against Leeds. He had shots away to Palace, Leicester and Everton, so he should find space today against Leeds. His xG per 90 is only 0.02 however I am expecting Brighton to dominate Leeds today and should have a number of shots outside the box and perhaps he is due to hit the target.
Pervis Estupinan to have a shot on target. €6. 4.4