Looking over this weeks fixtures, it feels like each of the bigger sides that are expected to win, should win. Usually, I am looking at the potential weak points in the bigger teams and the stronger points in the weaker teams and then look to pick the right bet, however this time is the opposite.
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Bournemouth have improved since they made a number of January transfers in as I outlined in the preview to the Wolves game where I judged that they might win. However, they were actually very poor in that game and looked fearful of the idea of losing that game. If they had then they would have really started to be cut adrift at the bottom.
They were comfortably beaten by Man City at home and were comfortably outplayed by Arsenal last week even though they were so close to getting a draw.
In this game Lerma starts but is carrying a knock, but it might affect his mobility and or his expected minutes in the game.
Games like this are curious as I have often seem that when a team beats another by a large score in one game they can often struggle to score in the reverse fixture. The xG in the 9-0 game was 4.86 to 0.18, so Bournemouth didn’t get much luck on the day.
Typically I would be looking for a Bournemouth angle on this game but they seem to have low confidence in their ability – I am concluding this from being ahead at Wolves and Arsenal. Wolves are so poor in attack that Bournemouth were able to hold on but against this Liverpool side it looks unlikely that they can hold them off.
Liverpool are 1.43 or 69% likely to win and I find it hard to disagree with that given how well Liverpool played last week against Man United winning 7-0. They have players coming back from injury and so the standards are going up.
It feels more likely that Liverpool will take the lead in this game. If the do then that could take the pressure off Bournemouth and it might then be an opportunity to lay Liverpool. Bournemouth showed against Arsenal that they can counter attack and the have scored now in their last four games, which included Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle and Wolves, which is in line with their xG, so we can expect Bournemouth to score at some point.
Gakpo’s finishes last week were top class and so I am going to back him to continu his form, by placing a bet on him to score any time at 3.0.
Dango Ouattara had started well for Bournemouth in his first few games and has contributed to the attack in all of them. He is 6.8 to score any time and 8.6 to have two shots on target. He has gone close a number of times so I’ll place a small bet on him to break his Bournemouth duck and score today.
Gakpo score any time. 3.0. €8
Ouattara to score any time. 6.8. €4