Bet Review: Saturday’s Punting

Bet: Newcastle to win in running at 0-1, 32.0, €4

When Man City when 1-0 up, Newcastle were priced at 32.0. Given how many times Man City have conceded after they have scored this season, I had thought it was good value to bet on Newcastle to comeback.

The xG timing chart doesn’t really support that this was a particularly good bet. The highlights though show that Newcastle had three good openings after City scored. However, they lacked the quality to take them under the pressure of the situation.

Howe again failed to generate an impact when he made his subs. This is something to keep track of.

Bet: Tottenham to score four and win against Wolves, 23.0, €4

Having been following Wolves closely this season, I wasn’t impressed with their starting line up. Too many passengers for my liking particularly upfront, while I anticipated a bit of responce from Spurs getting knocked out of the FA Cup during the week.

True enough Wolves didn’t create one chance until into the second half when they made a number of subs to change things up. Tottenham had a number of good chances but didn’t take them. Typically this season they have been clinical this season with a 12% shot conversion rate this season.

Tottenham have also been stronger in the second half, while Wolves have tended to fade in the second half, conceding 24 goals compared to 11 in the first half. The expectation was the Spurs would keep going to the end after their cup defeat.

In the end, Wolves scored late in the game as the managers changes really improved the play of the side.

Bet: Chelsea to score 4 and win, 17.0, €4

This was placed in running during the first half when Chelsea had had two clear goal scoring opportunities. The thinking was that Chelsea need to win and win well, while Leeds are likely still quite a poor team and are open to conceding when playing a high line, which they would need to when chasing the game.

In the end, Chelsea won 1-0 off and xG of 1.87. They are still not taking their chances. If they had of taken them earlier maybe things might have opened up.

It is wiser to take a less aggressive approach when betting on Chelsea as the market expectation on them is still high.

Bank is now: €114

Missed Opportunites & Future Opportunites

There were no high odds missed opportunties that I could see yesterday. I felt it was a day for patience but also felt like dabbling a bit.

Luke Ayling again got forward for Leeds and had one shot on goal (xG 0.04).

Ouattara for Bournemouth had one shot on target against Arsenal as well as contributing the key pass for the first goal.

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