Fulham beat Leeds 2-0 in the FA Cup last night in a game that I speculated that Leeds could win by two goals and placed bets on: Leeds Score 4 and Win, 2-0 HT, 4-1 Leeds and also laid Fulham in running while they were 2-0 up.
Leeds set up in a 4-3-3 formation which I was happy to see since the blog has suggested that they move to this formation to better suit the players in their squad. Under Gracia they played a more possession based game under this formation and looked a much better side. The stats actually don’t back this up, with Leeds having 46% possession away to Fulham yesterday while they have averaged 50% on average this season. Interesting.
The xG on this game showed Fulham 0.2 to 1.34 for Leeds. Fulham scored two cracking goals from distance while Leeds had two goals ruled out in the first half for a foul and offside; they also hit the post later in the game. The game seemed to become more frantic in the second half which I thought suited Leeds. They were at least two goal mouth scrambles in second half which could easily have dropped at the feet of a Leeds player, but didn’t.
What can we learn from this match?
Fulham play Brentford on Monday night and will be without Joao Palinha which is a big loss. So their defence will be under more pressure. Fulham are a lay from me for the foreseeable future and they are on the otherside of the xG numbers for a few games.
Leeds away play Chelsea and on Chelsea’s form you would have to fancy them. But Leeds are still not yet convincing enough. So I weigh this up between now and the weekend.
Bet Review: Phil Foden to Score 2, €6, 12.8; Silva Score 2 at 30.0, €4
I had no real reservations about Man City away to Bristol City and expected a comfortble win. Given that Foden score and went close a few times last weekend I decided to back him to score 2 (along with Silva) and this bet eventually came in. Foden should be hungry and less wasteful given that he has been out of the side for a few months. He took his chances well but likely won’t get to start for City at home to Newcastle on Saturday.
Bet Review: Blackburn to be winning 2-0 at HT against Leicester, 100.0, €2
Leicester have been conceding many chances in their past few games and I thought it was worth a small bet in running in this game, while it was scoreless. Blackburn capitalised on a mistake from Amartey in the first half to go in 1-0 up and then scored early in the second half to go into a 2-0 lead. So while the bet lost, it went close.
Bank is now at: €148 going into tonights games.