Writing the preview it occurred to me my initial thinking that Southampton were much better placed than Leeds to win this game eroded the confidence in it, but I went ahead with a small bet on the main Southampton striker, Onuachu to score 2 at 30.0. He had two shots on goal but no goals (xG 0.12) and was substituted on 63 minutes. Leeds then went on to nick a winner and win 1-0 late in the game.
The xG on this game also shows that it was a tight game with it balanced at 0.72 to 0.39. The win will give Leeds a confidence boost in themselves and in new manager Gracia.
Overall, I feel that the analysis was fine had Southampton had got a break early in the game the outcome might have been different. The forward was subbed early in the previous game so it was a poor bet from that point of view as his expected minutes were low.
Bet Review: Ings to get a hat-trick, 85.0, €4
West Ham played Nottingham Forest on Saturday and it was a game I had been planning to preview but during the research I looked at West Ham’s xG in the past few games, the pressure on Moyes on this game along with the number of individual errors players are making for West Ham and decided not to preview them. I also expected Antonio to start upfront in place of Ings. When I saw the teams and Ings was starting I felt that the chances of West Ham winning increased significantly and also that Forest were due to lose heavily as they had been fortunate in the past few games along with the opening game against West Ham where they beat them but lost on xG. Forest also were missing their main centre backs along with Aurier and had Shelvey in midfield so less cover for the defense.
So I placed €4 on Danny Ings to score a hat-trick at 85.0. Score 2 was only 15.0 and was a bit too low I thought.
In the end Ings scored two on 70 and 73 minutes, but was then subbed on 84 minutes. West Ham won 4-0 and if he stayed on he would likely have bagged a hat trick.
Bet Review: Draws
I invested €12 in an accumulator of draws on Saturday as all games with the exception of Bournemouth and Man City looked very close and it looked like there was some value there. In the end only Liverpool Palace drew, so it looks like it was a poor evaluation of the games.
Bet Review: Foden to score a hat trick at 120.0, €4
The expectation was that City would score at least four against Bournemouth. I have been following Bournemouth and they were very poor in their win against Wolves and their main defensive midfielder, Lerma was carrying a knock from that game. In addition City have been creating plenty of chances, such as the game last week against Forest, as well as looking focused after their midweek Champions League game. Foden started and I saw he was 120.0 for a hattrick I decided to invest in that.
City won 4-1 and Foden scored one. He was involved in all three of the first three goals and on another day he could have scored the three of them. So I am happy with the chance this bet had and the thinking behind it.