The main bet of the weekend was Bournemouth to beat Wolves but there were various bets placed on that outcome all of which failed to land.
Bournemouth from what I can see played really poorly in this game, only managing five shots on goal, one of which on target. Tavernier scored but seemed to be off the pace in his comeback from injury. Lerma, the main defensive presence in midfield, came off at half time, Ouattara at 58 minutes and Solanke had three shots at goal but none on target, we had him backed to have two shots on target.
Perhaps Bournemouth were nervous about the importance of this game and they froze a little. Passing accuracy was 69% and they have 47 clearances during the game. Feels a bit panicked to have that many.
Jack Stephens made a number of key tackles, blocks and clearances at centre back and without him I would say Wolves would have scored at least one.
Bet Review: Wober to have 2 shots on target, 100, €4
Felt that the Everton Leeds game would be a bit messy and frantic, which might suit Leeds, however Leeds didn’t really show up and only had eight shots at goal, none of which were on target. It is notable that Luke Ayling again had a shot on goal and it was their best chance of the game. That is three games a row in which he has had shots. Leeds seem to not be ready for the relegation fight.
Wober had to be substituted at 48 minutes too, probably injury related which needs to be watched closely as he has been strong at the back for them most of the time. I am not sure why they play him in the centre and Struijk on the left and not vice versa.
Bet Review: Fofana to score two, €6, 12.0
When I saw that David Fofana was starting for Chelsea against Southampton, I had the feeling that he might do a lot better than Havertz and if Chelsea continued to create chances like they have been then he had a better probability to scoring two than 9%. However, this was a feeling and not properly researched. Fofana was subbed at 50 minutes having had two shots at goal (xG 0.06). He was replaced by Raheen Sterling who got into better positions but missed a two very good opportunities (0.87 xG).
Southampton were always going to be better a game after sacking Nathan Jones and that performance against Wolves last week where it was clear they had stopped playing for him.
Potter really needs to have a more consistent line up. He rested Reece James in this game which is always a big loss for this Chelsea team both in defense and attack.
Bet Review: Leicester to win HT/FT, €20
Leicester played Man United away yesterday and lost 3-0 conceding an xG of over 4 goals, which shows how United were able to play through them. They played a high press and high defensive line that goes with it. In the first half they created chances (11 shots) but only two on target and which David DeGea pulled off two fantastic saves. Leicester really should have gone in ahead.
However, while they are good going forward they were weak at their offside trap with United getting in behind them a number of times and which is where the first two goals came from. The partnership between Faes and Soutter needs more time to be able to defend in this way against a team with the pace, dribbling and passing that United have. Faes in particular was at fault for the first goal, misplacing a pass and then rushing out.
Souttar and Castagne are building up partnership on the right hand side as are Barnes and Iheanacho and the other side. It is noteable that United pressed Iheanacho much higher in the second half and he wasn’t able to hold the ball up as well, giving away possession for the their United goal.
For United, they continue to impress. Their all round play is improving and it is interesting to follow Dalot’s as he was allowed to come in field and get forward. He could have had two goals in his past two games now after he hit the crossbar against Leeds.
Bet Review: Trossard to score 2, €4, 25.0
I anticipated that Arsenal would respond well after their midweek loss to Man City. The only risk was if they would be a bit tired given the short turnaround. Looked at backed them to score four but decided to back Trossard to score 2 or more instead as he should have been the players who were the freshest given he didn’t start the midweek games.
However, he only had 40 touches in 68 minutes and no shots and one key pass. (Odegaard had seven key passes, Saka had 6 shots and Nketiah had 5).
Had a feeling that Zinchenko might also score but didn’t place anything on that outcome. It is also notable that he’s now had 11 shots in this past five games. So he should also get another couple of goals this season if he maintains those stats.
Plenty to learn from this weekend which we can use in the coming weeks.
Bank is now at €164. I need to try only placing bets when I have reviewed them in depth.