I got the result right but lost too much on this game. The mistake I made was not waiting for the team sheets and then once they were announced over-reacting to them.
In the end I placed bets on Varane to score, €14 at 8.2, however he didn’t play and Betfair do not refund if a player doesn’t play – it used to be the case that they did.
When I saw Maguire start in his place I thought he also had a good chance to score a header for a corner or freekick and placed money on him to score €14 at 13.0 and to have 2 shots on target, €14 at 19.5. This was far too much to place on this selection. In the end he had one header on goal and it was blocked. United average 4.2 corner per game in the league this season but only had 3 in yesterday’s game.
I expected Shaw to be a left back but he played at centre back for much of the game. The bet on him was €4 to have two shots on goal at 55.0. I am OK with this selection but not when he’s a CB.
I saw Ayling had 12 tackles in the first United game and thought he’d be up against Rashford for the majority of this game and would struggle big time. At 4.5 to get a booking I thought that was a solid bet so placed €24 on it. He had 8 tackles in this game and only won three. The two goals United scored also came down his side. However, he didn’t pick up a booking.
Also, I should have realised that he was out of the team under Marsch and his performances in the first game and this game have been upped as he puts in an FU performance to Jesse Marsch. He had two shots in this game and two in the last game. So worth keeping in mind for the next few games.
Max Wober also had two shots on goal (not on target) so might be worth following in the coming games also.
Finally, I saw Licha at 320.0 for 2 shots on goal and placed €2 on that. Happy with that as it should pay off longer term.
The lesson here is to follow Leeds defenders for shots on target, remember the old manager reaction for players and also to wait for team sheets before placing any bets, even if it means the bets do not get published in time on the blog.