Leicester put in a superb performance and were able to put Spurs under pressure enough to win the game comfortably. They were narrow winners on xG 1.41 to 1.12 but Spurs goal was from a lucky break at a corner meaning it was hard to miss and didn’t have any chances of note after that.
Leicester also had a goal ruled out for offside which looked to be onside. Leicester also went ahead 3-1 in the first half so didn’t need to go forward and create further chances. This is an example of how the gamestate can influence the xG numbers.
The second and third goals from Leicester were the result of the high press from Leicester While the last goal was a result from Spurs losing possession in midfield.
The -1 bet won while the 2-0 HT bet lost. Overall, I was in profit from yesterday’s action.
When Spurs scored first I considered backing Leicester 2-1 at HT but decided not to. After the comeback last week against Aston Villa where they also scored three goals in the first half, coming from behind, they had form.
In hindsight, I missed out on the score four and win bet. I decided not to place it before the game but it would have been worth a small bet when Spurs went 1-0 and was probably close to 50.0.
Bet Review: Chelsea West Ham
There were three bets on this game, Felix to score two, Chelsea -1 and Chelsea score 4 and win.
When Chelsea went ahead 1-0 with Felix scoreing after 17 minutes it looked set up to win, however Potter’s side are a long way from putting together this kind of performance. They consistently seem to plateau in the second half of games. The xG was 0.9 to 1.08 in favour of West Ham.
Felix is the main goal threat with an xG of 0.51 having three shots on goal yesterday.
There is also some speculation that Cucurella and Mudryk are not getting along with Cucurella not passing enough to Mudryk. Havertz was upfront but only registered and xG of 0.03, he also has the most amount of offsides in the league this season, with 24, 7 ahead of second place.
With so much change at Chelsea there will be opportunities each game week, so I will continue to monitor them each week.