Spurs have an average expected goals against this season of 1.17 away from home in the Premier League. Missing today is Romero having to serve a suspension and Lloris who is injured. Replacing Lloris is expected to be Fraser Forester who is 34 years old and known as a shot stopper but not for being fast off his line or playing out with his feet, which is typically what Spurs under Conte like to do.
With Romero in the side they have averaged 1.35 goals conceded in league this season, which is surprising.
- Romero: 1.35 ga/g
- Emerson Royal: 1.5 ga/g (14 starts)
- Davison Sanchez: 1.16 (6 starts but excluding this first three games against Wolves, Forest and West Ham, he averages 2.0 per game in 3 games, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Leicester)
- Ivan Perisic: 1.4 ga/g
So despite Spurs last two games where they have kept clean’s against Fulham and Man City, I expect them to concede at least two goals away to Leicester today.
Leicester’s high press last week against Aston Villa helped them score two goals. If Spurs continue with this today, it will likely lead to similar results.
In the first game between these two sides this season Spurs won 6-2, however the xG was 1.99 to 1.59 so it was really a close game. Leicester pushed on looking to score and left space behind which Son was able to capitalise on.
In this game, Leicester should be able to cause Tottenham much more problems as it looks like Rodgers has got the players he needed in to build the right team. Against Villa they showed what they can do, with Tete on the right offering more balance to the attack and threat. This will mean that Spurs can’t protect their right side that much in this game.
Villa’s defending was very poor but it may be the case that Leicester’s attack caused them to look that poor, but the marking by Mingz on two of the goals was really questionable. Leicester’s xG was 2.5, which was one of the highest for an away team in the league this season. You’d imagine that at home they’d has a similar approach and push both full backs high as well as not playing and central defensive midfielder.
This will give Son extra space which they will be on high alert not to do so I will be interested to see how they manage this.
Spurs also have the Champions League round of 16 next week so will need to protect any players that have any niggling injuries which we don’t know about. Perisic has only completed six of his fifteen starts in the league this season for instance.
Leicester has also scored the majority (20/32) goals in the first half, while Spurs have conceded most theirs in the first half, so I’m going to have two bets:
Leicester 2-0 HT, 25.0, €26
Leicester -1, €14, at 8.4