West Ham have consistently given up just under and xG of 2 goals per game at home to the big six teams this season, which we can expect to continue with today.
Chelsea are an improving team given the recent additions to their side along with Reece James returning. They have underperformed their xG in their past five games, albeit marginally in some cases.
Joao Felix is back from suspension along with Mudryk having had more time to adapt the the EPL along with Enzo Fernandez. These are all big players for Chelsea and should mean that their expected goals is higher in this game than in their past four games. Their past two away games to Fulham and Liverpool they had and an xG of 2.4 and 1.84.
So it is likely in my view that they will score three goals in this game and perhaps a fourth if the game gets stretched and Chelsea’s strength off the bench pushes on for more, which is likely.
The team has been announced with Mudryk-Felix-Madueke behind Havertz. Reece James also starts are right back. With this front four there is a strong possibility of a penalty in this game. With Jorginho gone it’ll be interesting to see will Havertz continue or will Felix take them. After his six shots in 61 minutes against Fulham, I have decided to back him to score two or more at 28.0
Chelsea -2. €8 at 12.0
Felix to score two or more at 28.0 for €8
Chelsea Score four and win, 22.0, €8