This game at the City Ground is going to be tense as both teams will feel they can’t lose but are not yet in a tense enough situation where they also feel that they can win it.
During these games set-pieces like corners and free kicks are likely going to be one the main opportunities to score.
Both sides have averaged 3 shots on goal per game this season from set pieces. Defenders will be up for both corners and set pieces so I have been hunting for value in the shots market: step forward Max Wober at 80.0 to have two shots on target.
He has averaged 0.53 shots on target this season in the Austrian League, so we can see that he likes to get into attacking positions. He can score headers or also can shoot with his left foot from distance. He also has 4 goals in 22 games last year and 1 in 15 this season for RB Salzburg.
He has averaged 1.3 shots for Leeds during this five appearances for Leeds this season with an average shot distance of 21 yards from goal. Nottingham Forest have conceded an average of four shots from outside the box in the league this season.
If 1.3 shots is his average per game then there is probably a 50% chance he can get two shots on goal in this game. The likelihood of them being on target is 43% based on this numbers in Austria. So if my probability is right: 50*0.43 = 21.5 *0.43 = 9% or 11.0.
This is a little speculative but there is scope at 80.0 to be out by a few percent and still to be a profitable play. Nottingham Forest have conceded an average of four shots from outside the box in the league this season.
He can also take free-kicks but it is unlikely that he would be first choice for free-kicks givent the number of left footers who can take frees for Leeds such as Roca, Rutter, Harrison and Bamford.
Bet: Max Wober to have 2 shots on goal at 85.0 on Betfair, €14
Bank: €428