Caicedo is benched for Brighton increasing the likelihood that they will concede shots on goal.
Bournemouth do not create that many chances but when they do they tend to be big chances with them creating 77 big chances this season, fourth in the league on this metric.
Ouattard had five shots on goal in his debut at home against Forest two weeks ago. Only one of those was on target however. But his record this year in France averaged three shots on goal with one on target.
Brighton should have 65% possession in this game but still expecting Bournemouth to have 8 to 12 shots on goal. Ouattard should get a third of those based on the Forest game.
13.0 is 7.5% probability. However if Bournemouth average 10 shots and he has 3 he should get at least one on target based on his average. So the chances of him getting two shots is likely about 25%.
That is my reasoning so €36 at 13.0
I have also increased stakes on Bournemouth HT FT and -1 from €4 to €8 on both as well as €4 on Bournemouth to be winning 2-0 at HT.