Bournemouth are outsiders for this game at 10.0 to win.
However, scratching under the surface there are weak points on the Brighton side which leads me to explore the idea that Bournemouth can catch Brighton out today at 3 pm away at the Amex Stadium.
The weak points are the players missing for Brighton, Brighton’s defense does give up chances and the new signings for Bournemouth mean that there might be a little more upside on their end.
Brighton Missing Key Players
Levi Colwill in central defense is expected to be out and he has been very solid for them as well as offering an attacking threat with long diagonal balls forward. Van Hecke is expected to replaced him and he has only started one game this season, the 2-2 draw against Leicester recently. This is a risk for Brighton as he was at fault for the second Leicester goal last week.
In midfield, they are missing MacAllister who has averaged 2.7 tackles per game, 20 interceptions this seasons, as well as scoring five goals this season. He’ll be replaced by Pascal Gross who has 1.7 tackles per game so he likely won’t offer as much cover to the weaker defense.
Moises Caicedo went public with his desire to move to Arsenal in the past few weeks but Brighton refused to sell him, so will partner Gross in midfield. There is likely no issue here but it’s a risk to the moral of the side, but there is no risk premium priced in when Brighton are 1.38 to win the game.
Lallana and Ferguson are also doubts up front. Ferguson will likely be OK to play based on reports.
Brighton’s Defensive Numbers
Brighton have averaged 1.42 goals conceded per game this season and under Roberto De Zerbi it 1.53 goals conceded in 13 matches. So we can expect Brighton to give up chances and we also might see chances from crosses in particular.
Sanchez is 13th in crosses claimed this season and Bournemouth like to get crosses into Moore upfront. They have missed the threat of Tavernier who has 77 crosses for them this season but has missed the last few games with injury, it is possible he comes back in.
Keiffer Moore (1.96 m) will have the edge over the central defenders Dunk (1.92 m) and Van Hecke (1.89 m). 13 of Moore’s 17 attempts on goal this season have been with his head. Adam Webster (1.91 m) started against Liverpool and may well start to match Moore’s height. Brighton average 1.77 goals per game conceded when Webster has played this season.
Bournemouth January Signing Bounce?
If Tavernier is out, then Bournemouth have the threat Ouattara on the right. He played his first game last week against Nottingham Forest assisted the goal with a cross and also had five shots at goal. Bournemouth’s xG in this game was 1.8 which was their second highest in the league this season.
Anthony on the left scored last week and also can contribute with crosses into the box as well as making runs himself into the box.
Bournemouth have made a number of big money signings in the January window and this will increase competition for places in the team and should boost the performance of the squad. It is unclear if any of the other signings will come straight into the team.
Usually new signings do not have a positive impact particularly in the short term. Ouattara has shown in his first game that he is ready to contribute. The left back they signed should boost the performance of Zemura, while the center back is highly rated and it’s possible that he may go directly into the team. This would be a concern.
Hamad Traore has assisted three times in eleven games in Serie A this season, so he will likely feature at some stage depending on the score. Again this might lift the performance of the likes of Billing.
Value in an Upset
If Bournemouth start well they can get a result in this game. I am happy to invest:
€4 in Bournemouth HT FT @ 20.0
€4 Bournemouth -1 @ 36.0