Bet:
Forest to Quality at 100/1 – €125 staked
Reasoning
This game is about mindset, fatigue and unpredictability. All of these factors are in Nottingham Forest’s favour and it why I expect them to win tonight and have probably a 25% chance of qualification.
Mindset
Erik Ten Hag will have to do so much to have the players up for this game. In everyone’s mind this contest is over. Betfair have this priced at 1.01 for United to qualify. That is one trap.
United also beat Forest 3-0 twice in the past 12 games. On xG they were not 3-0 scores, flattering United. They could well turn up expecting an easy win tonight.
Forest should be the opposite, feeling hard done by and ready for the game, with fresh legs.
Fatigue
United have played ten games in the past 31 days with little rotation. The key players of Fernandez, Eriksson, Rashford and Casemiro have played the majority of minutes in these games. This will catch up with them tonight.
Forest have played eight games in that time and critically have had a week’s rest in that time. United played in the Cup at the weekend and didn’t really rotate. They struggled to break down a bad Reading team.
Ten Hag has seen Eriksson get injured at the weekend and will be out for a few months, so he will likely rest the other key United players for this game.
Unpredictability
United will likely play some of the younger players, while Forest will play their new recruits such as Scarpa and Danilo. These players played last week but are still adjusting to English football and their role in the Forest team. I expect Steve Cooper to get a bit more out of them in tonight’s game, something it will be hard for United to know exactly what that is.
Bets:
Lay United +1 at 1.13 to lose €195
Forest 2-0 HT, €4 at 60
Forest Score 4 and Win, €14 at 140
Forest to qualify €125