I went hunting for a bet in the three o’clock games today in the EPL but have seen marginal bets (update: now found a standout bet). So, after sensing that all six games today would be close, I decided to back draws in all six.
As outlined in the How Can I Win Money Gamling? I stated that one of the lessons I have learned over the years is to not place accumulators however here I have gone and done that. With the six games I have a mix of quadrouples on Betfair Sportsbook. In all I have placed €37 at €2 on each bet, with €1 on all six games to finish in a draw.
I also placed €10 on Mo Salah to have a shot on target in the Chelsea game at enhanced odds of 2.0.
Leicester V Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton are the form team with Brighton now less than evens to win away to Leicester. There looks to no value to me in backing Brighton as it is very common for teams to perform well but then to regress back to their average result. DeZerbi has got Brighton playing very nice attacking football, overloading in the first phase of play when playing out from their goalkeeper then playing direct passes to make the most of space in their attacking third.
Added to that Brighton are missing a few players that have played an important role in their recent form, such as central defender Levi Colwell, who adds to their attack with his option of long balls into Mitoma. Evan Ferguson is a young striker leading the line who is still raw and unproven that he is a better option to Trossard, who has just completed a move to Arsenal. Lallana is also expected to start and he is traditionally injury prone and is 34 years old so these games will be increasing hard for him to maintain his form – but it is possible – not at less than evens for value.
Brighton have also been weak defensively under DeZerbi with and xGA of over 1 in their last eight games, so Leicester likely will score at least one goal.
Chelsea have also had a bid rejected from Brighton for Moises Caicedo. He’ll no doubt be keen to join them and Chelsea usually don’t stop until they get their player. Again he might play to his normal level but there is no risk premium priced in.
Leicester by contrast may have their key player back with James Maddison returning from injury. He has not been confirmed as back just yet so I’ll wait for the teamsheet but expecting he will at least be on the substitutes bench. Dewsbury-Hall is also back for Leicester.
Leicester can win this one in my view, but they have also been out-performing their xG this season with Maddison in particular being their best player. So this is a concern. Harvey Barnes, who should fancy his chances against converted right back, Gross, have also been over performing.
Leicester to be winning 2-0 at HT, 26.0, staking €4
Southampton v Aston Villa
Nathan Jones has got some impressive results in the past few weeks to most people’s surprise. He is appreciated by the Cash Dash after Southampton helped the blog win an 88x bet, so I am following Southampton closely to see how they are progressing and if there is any more value.
Southampton in general this season have also been underperforming their xG and xA. Not a complete surprise for a team that are bottom of the league.
Aston Villa really should have conceded at least three goals at home to Leeds in their last game. The xGA was 2.46. They are missing Digne and Cash in defence so Young will play right back and that will mean that Edozie will look to attack him in 1v1 situations. Looking at the heatmaps of Luiz and Kamara from the Leeds game they don’t tend to be sitting that deep and therefore offering limited support – will be interesting to see what Emery does here. Kamara more so on the Villa left hand side. McGinn is also out so Ramsey is expected to start in right midfield. Edozie has averaged 1.66 shots per 90 in his 380 minutes.
Moreno is a new signing for Villa expected to start at left back as Digne is injured, as is Matty Cash. Southampton are expected to play Lyanco in right back and Elyanounoussi on the right of midfield, so not as much of a treat on that side.
Che Adams is also expected to lead the line up front for Southampton. He showed last week with his two assists against Everton that Jones likes to use him primarily as a target man and he can then bring others into play. He was a key factor in JWP scoring two goals last week. I am wondering if Edozie can also benefit from this this week. Adams has laid-off three times to Edozie for this shots so far this season.
Samuel Edozie to have 2 shots on target, 19.0, staking, €25 – please wait for team news before placing following this bet
Ward Prowse two shots on target, 4.9, €6
Southampton Score four and win, 30.0, €4
Balance is now: €727
That means there is 14% of the bankroll in play during today’s games. That is bit too high and I should have been more disciplined before placing the Sportsbook bets. The Mo Salah bet is fine though.
Unless a bet wins early today, I do not expect to be placing any further bets on games today.