I placed a number of bets on Spurs against Manchester City, outlined in this post, and overall I was in profit on this game, even though City mounted a super second half comeback to win 4-2.
The 2-0 HT bet won at 55.0, while I cashed out partially at half time on the best on Spurs to win. I let the Score Four and Win bet ride, while the Spurs -1 bet wasn’t matched which I was surprised at.
Given how tight the first half was in this game where there were very few shots to then go to the other extreme of six goals in the second half, feels like a bit of a collapse from Spurs. The xG was 2.34 to 1.16, so the TNHT bet was fortunate to win, however at 55.0 there was plenty of scope for a bit of luck.
Where does this result leave the speculative view that there was simmering discontent in the City camp? At half time, after a few City mistakes, looked to validate it. However, Pep had enough of an impression to get the desired responce from his players in the second half. Pep’s post match interview called out his players for not been competitive enough, not having enough guts and even mentioned the fans were also complacment. So, this point remains simmering within City. The volatility within the games should mean that there plenty is for value but it needs to have the finger on the pulse of City.
The key to this is to get more of a understanding and feel for the City personality.
Bet Review: Crystal Palace v Man United
This game was on Wednesday and finished 1-1 and 0.41 – 1.39 on xG in favour of United. I had two bets on this game pre-match. Palace HT Draw FT 20.0, stake €4 and also Edouard to score two at 40.0, staking €4. Edouard’s xG was just 0.10 however he had a brilliant shot in the first half that DeGea tipped onto the crossbar, which was one of the saves of the season.
United had won ten games by a single goal previous to this, while also having just won against Man City and also bringing in Wout Weghorst into the line up, it struck me that Crystal Palace could give them a real game and that it would a competitive game. Palace did compete against other big six teams this season, notably the game against Chelsea at the weekend.
It is also notable that Eze was dropped as Vieira played Edouard and Mateta upfront. Olise did OK on the right, he was in and out the game but showed some cutting edge and played the ball into Edouard for his shot. In fact he had four key passes during the game and was their most creative player.
Palace play Newcastle at home on Saturday and it will be interesting to see if Vieira plays the same team for that game. Given the xG of Palace during this game, you’d have to favour Newcastle but it would be a marginal value bet.
After these midweek game, the blog’s bankroll is now at €853.