Bet Series: Lewis Hall to Score

Chelsea are 10th in the Premier League after 19 games as the club undergo a transition of the ownership of Roman Abramovich to Clearlake Capital and from the management of Tuchel to Potter. Within that they have a huge number of injuries to key players such as Reese James, Fofana, Kante and Sterling. All of this has created opporunities for other players within the squad. An important part of Clearlake Capital’s strategy is development of younger players, so they have apprecaite in value. All of this has created an opportunity for Lewis Hall.

Lewis Hall is an 18-year-old Chelsea player who was recently promoted to the first team squad due to a large number of injuries in the Chelsea squad. He has impressed in training and has played four times so far, all at left back. He has been doing so well that he was picked ahead of an established left back in Marc Cucurella in the last two matches. With Potter under pressure he is valuable to him also to see Hall progressing under his management.

Hall is actually a central midfielder but has taken his opportunity at left back / left wing back. Potter has show the benefits of his flexibility and creativity with players. As they are missing James on the right and don’t have a player to replace him that can offer the same width on that side. Trevor Chalobah played last week against Palace. So for Chelsea to have options going forward they need to add width to the side and so need an attacking option on the left side.

Cucurella is the natural choice but hasn’t had a great start to this Chelsea – his key passes per 90 is 0.57, whereas Hall is currently at 1.40, which compares well to James at 1.32. Hall has shown more ability to dribble past opposition players, break the lines and get Chelsea moving.

The injuries on the left side of Chelsea’s attacking front are also a factor in who Potter selects in defence. With Sterling and Pulisic both injured they also don’t have a lot of width, so this increases the value to have an attacking option behind them who can support attacking players like Mount or Joao Felix.

Hall does tend to cut inside, rather than sitting on the touch line, but his overall attacking threat and drive as well as being quite solid in defence means he have been picked in the past two games.

Against Liverpool, Reese James and Ben Chilwell are now back in training and maybe in contention for Chelsea. As both have had many injury problems it is unlikely they will start against Liverpool and more likely they will be introduced in the second half. Chelsea have also signed a left winger Mudryk – again it will be interesting to see if Potter will put him start in against Liverpool from the start. He did this with Felix and while he was their best player he did get sent off. As he is very much a short term loan signing there would be more sense in getting full use of him.

Considering Potter started Hall against Manchester City a few games ago, he likely will start Hall against Liverpool too.

Hall has an xG of 0.33 per 90 as he has instructions from Graham Potter to get into the box in attacks and counter attacks. Hall has had good opportunities to score but hasn’t taken them. His record at youth levels is not prolific but he must have shown good finishing ability in order to be trusted to be allowed to get so far forward.

I had imagined that the Hall to Score bet might turn into a miniseries; however, with James and Chilwell returning, along with Mudryk coming in, the probability of extended value is now lower.

Focusing on this game and working on the assumption that he will start at left back or left wing back, we can see that Liverpool concede 24% of their chances down their right side (Trent), a higher rate than most other sides.

Hall is currently 18.0 on Betfair to score any time against Liverpool. 18.0 means he has a probability of 5% to score. Given his xG in 257 minutes is 0.23, or 23% chance. This is the benefit of having data that is reliable that can be used to better gauge the exact opportunity. This kind of difference is very large and can be hard to find. So I am happy to be attack this with a high stake bet and again would draw on the blackjack analogy where the “deck is hot”.

The bankroll is currently at €853. I had planned to have this bet as part of a series and create a staking plan around that; however that might now change, but it doesn’t change the staking plan too much for this game. I am happy to allocate 5% of the balance towards this bet in this game.

The odds may increase closer to kick off but I am happy with:


Lewis Hall to score any time against Liverpool, 18,0, staking €40

Update: Only €18 available on Betfair which I have taken and €14 at 16.0

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