Lewis Hall missed a great chance to score against Palace, which was his only shot of the game. The xG was 0.24 but looking at it in real time, it looked easier to score than miss. His odds were 16.0 which is closer to 6% so it looks like a profitable bet assuming he can continue to get shots on goal in the box.
Chelsea’s next four games are Liverpool, Fulham, West Ham and Southampton so assuming his xG of 0.22 (or 22%) any odds over 5.0 is a profitable bet. With odds available of 16.0 there is a 11 point difference. Now the challenge is to decide what is the appropiate staking plan for this bet, so that we minimise the loses but maximise the return.
With the bankroll of €631 today, and I am not sure how much exactly to allocate but €160 feels about right. It is very aggressive but I am OK with it given the probability of a win. That is €40 per game. The chance of a win is 88% and given the opponents it is probably higher. Of course, it could be 1000% and still not win, but long term it is the right move.
One mistake I made in this Chelsea game was not having a staking plan. In the end, I had €16 on Hall, €10 on -1, €4 on Mount and €4 on Ziyech, totalling €32. I should only have had a bet on Hall. I need to be more disciplined and follow my own hard learned advice.
Chelsea had an xG of 2.13 compared to Palance’s 0.84, and so they did not fully deserve the two goal win. Mount had two shots (xG 0.05) while Ziyech had three shots (xG 0.09). These were panic bets after I thought I missed the opportunity on Hall as his odds were 4.1 after teams where announced.
Newcastle: I also placed €10 on Newcastle -1 during the game while scoreless at odds of 5.0 as they were dominating the match. The xG after I placed bet was 1.3 so Newcastle just didn’t have enough. It finished 1.96 to 0.99 but Newcastle were in complete control until they gave away a penalty which Fulham missed in bizarre circumstances. Isak got the goal in the final minutes to give them a vital win. He will likely be crucial to them in the second half of the season. Wilson had 7 shots and an xG of 0.65 but didn’t manage to score.
Arsenal: I laid Arsenal at 1.11 to lose €4 at halftime, thinking that Spurs might do their usual second half – they were much improved as their first half xG was 0.43 while their second half xG was 1.28, however they couldn’t actually score.
The fund is now at €631 and a clear staking plan is needed for each bet.