After Chelsea had an xG of 2.4 against Fulham and won on xG in three of their last four home games, losing to Manchester City, they can continue that today with a strong win against Crystal Palace.
Chelsea obviously have a huge injury list and are in turmoil but thankfully we can look to the xG to see what is really happening in their recent games.
Lewis Hall is a young player that Graham Potter has decided to play due to injuries to Chilwell and the form of Cucurella. He has played 177 minutes in the past three games and has an xG per 90 of 0.21, or 6.0 in betting odds. He is currently priced at 16.0 on Betfair.
Against Man City in the league he came on for Cucurella on 68 minutes and had shot on goal from inside the box.
In Crystal Palace’s last game agasint Spurs, Matt Doherty, their right wing back had four shots from inside the box. Ivan Perisic, their left wing back, had none but tended to keep close to the wing to help give them width, while Doherty was allowed to get into the box.
Crystal Palace have quite a settle side with Patrick Viera knowing his best team, however his system using those players is not working that well as they are not creating enough chances and then are not converting those chances well enough. In their past seven games they have averaged less than one expected goal per game. That includes games against Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham, Southampton, West Ham and Everton. And they have an XGA of 1.42.
When the teams are announced I will look for value in player to score markets as I am expecting Chelsea to score two or three goals and win 2-0 or 3-1.
Bet:
Chelsea -1, 3.6, Stake €10
Lewis Hall to score any time. 16.0. Stake 16.
Bet:
Mount to score two or more, 28.0, stake 4
Ziyeck to score two or more, 29.0, stake 4
Chelsea score four and win, 17.0, stake 4
Chelsea have drifted to nearly even money in the win market, this is too high for my money.