I backed Che Adams to score two or more goals before yesterday’s game against Everton at odds of 24.0. The game finished 2-1 Southampton with Adams getting an assist but not scoring. So what can we learn here?
Nathan Jones, the Southampton manager, is starting to get his methods across to the players. From reviewing the win against Mancester City, I thought he would start Mara upfront and that the wing backs would supply him with plenty of chances. However, I didn’t give this game enough consideration. Everton do not play a high line and so Adams was selected to hold up the ball and bring supporting midfielder runners into play. Here is a good overview of Adams from a previous season. Mara was selected against Man City as they play a high line and he has the pace to get in behind them. Here is a guide to Mara’s attributes.
This meant that Adams was not the best value option to score goals. There was better value in looking at a midfielder who he might be bringing into play. As Everton are defending deep a player with good shoting from outside the box would also have been a good play. Such a player of course was James Ward Prowse. For their first goal, there was a long ball played into Adams who was able to head it down into JWP and he was able to finish with class. The second goal was a JWP free kick, which is scored directly from. Again Southampton had firstly to win this free kick in order for him to even have the chance to take it.
Ward Prowse’s average position has also changed as Jones has moved him from the double pivot higher up the pitch into the number ten position. Here are two heatmaps which show his touches against Brighton and against Everton.
I didn’t have Everton as they are averaging more than two goals conceded in their last few home games. So I back Southampton to be winning two nil at half time, to score four and win along with 14 on Adams. In total I lost €20 on this game. But hopefully we can use this knowledge to see things more clearly in future Southampton games.