Manchester Derby Preview: 18X Return for United HT Draw FT?

Current Form

United have gone on a fantastic run of wins since losing to Manchester City in the first game of this season. Ten Hag understood the limitations of this squad better after that game and improved the foundation of the team with six clean sheets in those ten games, conceding six goals in those games, with three in one game, away to Aston Villa.

That said, their expected goals against in those games were eight goals. Many of those games were won by narrow margins. For example, United have had 126 shots from inside the box this season while giving up 108 shots inside the penalty box to other teams. Other sides have not taken their chances well, as United has scored 18 while its opponents have only scored 10.

Manchester City by contrast have had 185 shots within the penalty box and score 29 goals. That is actually the same ratio (15%) as United, but they have just created much more opportunities.

City have averaged 2.3 xG in the league this season but that has dropped to 2.13 in the past six games, with their actual goals scored in those six games being 1.3. Does that mean we can expect a reaction today from City? It does increase the likelihood of an improved performance, especially given the over-performance of United’s defence.

City has showed that they are still capable of blowing big teams away as they showed recently in their cup game against Chelsea where they where 3-0 up at HT.

Formation Surprises

Both manager will likely tweak their formations or players to get an edge over the other manager. United have been very predictable in their current run with more or less the same formation and line up. City have a very standard formation but are continually changing up the players. There risks to both. Personally, I’d like to see Foden start after his hatrick against United last time.


Feels like a hard game to predict. I am going to go with United to be winning at HT and then Draw at FT. 18.0 on Betfair, staking €4.

I was tempted to bet on Foden to score 2 at 29.0, assuming he starts, but I am reminded of this bet, so I think I’ll hold off on this bet for now.

Update: Decided to back Foden to score at 30.0 as he starts and backing to return to form as he is a top quality player. Stake €14.

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