Bet Review: Fulham v Chelsea

I placed two bets on Chelsea in running as they had started the game quite well and because they have so much change going on with players on the pitch and staff off it, that they are unpredicatable. Graham Potter also needs a big win or a high-scoring win to take the pressure off him. Given this, I placed a bet on Chelsea to be winning 2-1 at halftime (when they were 1-0 down) at odds of 40.0 for a stake of 4 euros, while also backing them to score four and win the game at similar odds and stake.

Fulham won the game helped by the sending off of Joao Felix in the second half with the sore at 1-1. Despite being down to ten men the xG shows that Chelsea could have expected to score 2.4 goals during the game. If they had Felix on, who was their best player, they might have had a xG of 3.5. So, overall it looks like it was a value bet.

Given the volatility within Chelsea they are a team that I will be following and looking to identify the right time to bet on them.

Game Review: Aston Villa vs Leeds

I stayed out of betting on this game as I thought it might be a low scoring game and that Villa might edge it 1-0. Villa did win 2-1 but Leeds had the better opportunities during the game with the xG expecting a Leeds United win (1.65 v 2.46). While Leeds played well every loss is increasing the pressure on Jesse Marsch and it makes it that bit harder to win their next game.

The high level of chances conceded by Aston Villa, along with the high quality shots from Leon Baily (0.23 xG) means Villa will struggle in their next games if they can’t defend better. Boubaca Kamara also looking to be an increasingly important player for Unai Emery’s team.

No bets on this game, but knowledge gained for forthcoming games.

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