Here is an excerpt of the preview, which was placed on Monday:
Also, there is League Cup action this week which I had a quick look ahead too and was a bit surprised to see Southampton priced at 15.0 for a home win against Man City on Thursday evening. This is the biggest price for a home win I have ever seen between Premier League teams. The market doesn’t like what Nathan Jones is doing at Southampton but I am preferred to give him more time. I decided to place a stake of 4 euro on Southampton HT/FT at 27.0 and Southampton to be winning 2-0 at HT at odds of 90.0. More on this later in the week.
https://mypremierleaguecashdash.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=296&action=edit
As City are City, I decided to cashout the 2-0 HT bet around the 35 minute to bank the profit which worked out to be around €245 (potential of €348).
The bet on HT/FT win was cashout partly at HT and then fully at 80 minute. City had an off night but I have never seen them not even manage a shot on target before in any game.
The Blog’s P&L:
The blog’s fund is now at €740.
Reasoning Behind This Pick
When you see odds that are in your opinion obviously too high / low then the default position is to back the high odds or lay the low odds – even if you still believe the probability of that bet winning is still unlikely in a one off game. However, you do this because you believe it to be a profitable play over-time.
In many cases when this kind of bet doesn’t win or loses heavily then it can look to be a foolish pick and this is often how my bets can look when you only hear or see of a small number of them. That is part of the reasoning to document bets on this blog, so that people can get a better view. Also, writing previews also helps me to think through games and then potential bets. I want to see if doing this, along with using the available resources more, such as xG, improves my betting results and eventually builds up the fund to €100,000.
With this betting style there can be periods of losses and then the occasional big win. That tends to be pattern of this style of betting. Again, this is why having a staking plan based around low stakes so needed as you need to be able to ride out the periods of losses – or variance. This week we were fortunate to have two of these bets come in as Cardiff won 2-0 at HT against Leeds at 36.0, so the balance has increased a lot in the past week.
Typically, I also do not balance this betting style with lower variance bets, but in this blog I am also using lower odds bets which have a much higher probability to win, to help build the balance.
Lastly, I placed a bet on Rayan Ait-Nouri to score for Wolves last night at odds of 13.5 for a stake of 24 Euro. RAN did have a shot on target from inside the box in the first half from his position as a left wing back but was substituted at 60 minutes as Wolves looked to change formation. His odds have now come down from 26.0 as the market is seeing that he is getting into goal scoring positions more regularly. Wolves also still are not nearly creating enough chances so the value in this bet is marginal as things now stand and we will start to move on from it.