United were priced at 1.15 today to win at home against Charlton but that was likely based on the expectation that a strong team would be fielded. However, the starting line-up has a number of inexperienced and out-of-favour players, so Charlton have to be looked at as a value bet.
United’s front four is Antony – Mainoo – Garnacho – Elanga, while the rest of the team has a steadier look to it with McTominay – Fred ahead of Dalot-Maguire-Martinez-Malacia while Heaton makes a rare start in goal.
My interpretation of this is that Ten Hag really thinks Charlton are poor and this team can win comfortably – if I was the Charlton manager I think this would be fuel to motivate the team.
Charlton do have a poor defensive record as they have not keep a clean sheet in 10 league games. So it is better to look for value in attack.
The expectation is that Antony and Garnacho will be very focused on scoring and have lapses of concentration in defending for the team. This will mean that if Charlton can get the ball to their wide men (Rak-Saki and Blackett-Taylor) then they will have an opportunity to take on their respective full-backs. Rak-Saki is on-loan from Crystal Palace and I image he is thinking if he can put in a good performance against Malacia he will send a strong message to Patrick Vieria, the manager of Crystal Palace.
Their forward is also 6 foot 5 inches so he will of course look to go up against Martinez and the wide players will try to cross it into him.
There is some value in my view in look at 2 or more shots on target for the Charlton’s front players, so that is what I have gone for. Along with 2-0 HT Charlton as it is too hard to turn down at 140.0.
Rak-Saki 2 shots or more on target, 12.5, staking 4
Blackett-Taylor 2 shots or more on target, 14, staking 4
Leaburn 2 shots or more on target, 10, staking 4
Charlton 2-0 Half Time, 140.0, staking 4