The judgment call on Leeds went well. With no Tyler Adams to shore up the defence Leeds conceded two goals in the first half away to Cardiff meaning that the first bet on Cardiff winning 2-0 at halftime (TNHT) won. Initially it was 40.0, but when I placed the bet it was 36.0 as the market was reacting to the team news. I placed a 4 euro stake, so this returned a profit of €141.
I also had a 4 euro stake on Cardiff to win by two or more goals (Cardiff -1) at 14.0. Early in the second half I felt that Leeds would have a period when they got back into the match so I decided to fully cashout on this bet. The price on that bet at that time was 2.12 so that meant a profit on that bet of 76 euro.
I let the bet of score four goals and win ride to allow an upside if Cardiff could respond to Leeds pressure and counter attack. Leeds did get back into the game and it finished 2-2. So this bet lost 6 euro.
Each team has characteristics, which come from their manager and staff. This Leeds team are a good example of this. They like a high tempo game. This typically means they have periods where they are on top and others when they are taking a break. It is very difficult to maintain this high tempo for a full game. Bielsa’s side was probably the best example of having a consistently high tempo, but this current side seem to play in fits and starts. Understanding this helps to make judgement calls during inplay betting decisions.
The fund is now at 471 euro, meaning it is up 471% from the initial balance deposited of 100 in December.
There is one game later today in the FA Cup where Arsenal play away to Oxford. I’ll be previwing this game a bit later.
Also, there is League Cup action this week which I had a quick look ahead too and was a bit surprised to see Southampton priced at 15.0 for a home win against Man City on Thursday evening. This is the biggest price for a home win I have ever seen between Premier League teams. The market doesn’t like what Nathan Jones is doing at Southampton but I am preferred to give him more time. I decided to place a stake of 4 euro on Southampton HT/FT at 27.0 and Southampton to be winning 2-0 at HT at odds of 90.0. More on this later in the week.