Bet Review: Chelsea v Manchester City

The preview highlighted the speculative case for Chelsea to start well against Man City, and I decided to place a bet on Chelsea to be winning 2-0 at halftime.

The game was scoreless at HT but Chelsea did have the better of the first half with two good goalscoring chances. One was a blocked shot which only for a superb last ditch block from John Stones, Pulisic would have had a near certain goal; while Carney Chukwuemeka hit the post from outside the box.

The xG timeline illustrates this, although looking at these chances from the game they look like better chances that is reflected here:

Chelsea Manchester City xG Timeline

Even taking these percentages at face value the odds on offer were 40.0 (2.5%) so it looks like a value bet in hindsight.

The other bet for the other preview which speculated on a big Man City win, depended on Foden being angry for not playing the last few games and channelling that into a classy performance. However, he was subbed at 60 minutes and had no shots on goal. We’ll have to monitor his mood and performances in the coming games to see how his form is. had him as the worst performing Man City player from the starting eleven.

The performance from Chelsea will improve the mood. In particular the performance of Carney Chukwuemeka and also Lewis Hall look like they can make an impression in the first team and may get game time against Fulham next week. There may well be value in there if they are picked.

The blogging kitty now stands at 273.

Leave a comment