Staking 6 (of 311) at 8.6 for Darwin Nunez to score two or more goals on Betfair.
What is most important is the form since the World Cup break in both cases but particularly Liverpool and how players are performing. Also important is that Liverpool are active in the transfer market with the signing of Cody Gakpo. Liverpool have the best squad in the league with real competition in almost every position. This signing will keep all forward players in particular sharp, that is why I am looking at Nunez to score two or more.
Both sides have been performing in line with their xG in the past few games. With Liverpool winning their last four games and also winning the xG. Brentford have also been doing well being unbeaten in their last five games. So you would expect that Liverpool’s form and quality will be strong enough to create enough chances and win the game by two goals.
As Gakpo’s signing should lift players, I am looking at the forward three and wondering who is the best pick to score in this game. It may be Salah, Nunez and Oxlade Chamberlain. I love the Ox and would love to pick him to score two at odds of 36.0 but he only had one shot on goal in his last game and his heatmap suggests that he is there to help create chances more than be the finisher.
With Brentford likely playing a five-man defence it might see Liverpool try to get in behind the fullbacks, so in this situation, is it more likely that Salah will look to cross for Nunez? It would seem likely that Brentford won’t play a high line. Nunez also has the most shots of any Liverpool player in the past two games, with 6 and 7, hitting the woodwork in the last game. He is missing chances, but once he starts getting them, he will start scoring soon.
Nunez xG against Leicester was 0.79 while against Villa it was 1.44, so he is likely to score in this game if he can continue this form.
At odds of 8.6 it is a marginal bet. A hat-trick is 40.0 but Nunez is not that sharp where you would expect him to score three against a good keeper in David Raya who has saved more shots than any other keeper in the Premier League this season at 70.