I placed a bet of 4 on Aston Villa to be winning by two goals to nil at halftime against Spurs yesterday.
The thinking was that Spurs aren’t creating that many chances, over-performing their xG in most of their last six games.
They were also missing a number of key players (Kulusevski, Bendancour, Richarlison, while Dier was benched: scorers of 7 of their 31 goals this season) yesterday, while Son is off form.
Villa have better under new manager Emeri. The xG in their past few games doesn’t show they are creating that many chances but they were able to get some good results.
This bet was more an anti-Spurs play. I went for 2-0 HT as Spurs typically start slow and improve later in the game. In this game however, they started slow and didn’t improve.
The game finished 2-0 Villa, so the thinking was OK but the bet was a bit too speculative. As the game finished 2-0, and the odds were 36.0 it is a profitable play over time.