Hull look good value to get a result against Ipswich, with the potential that Ipswich have peaked and might now regress back to less consistent results.
Reasons to Oppose Ipswich
Many of their games in the league this season have been very close, but they have won or drawn them, with games so close this is unlikely to continue.
In their most recent game against Huddersfield they drew 1-1, but the consensus among Ipswich fans was that they were lucky to get a point. The xG shows that it was a draw of 1.2 to 1.3, but the goal from Williams was from close range, which can skew it.
Nathan Broadhead was injured against Huddersfield and is unlikely to start against Hull. He is their top scorer with four goals and looks to be in great form.
Sam Morsy will be back in defensive midfield after his suspension against Huddersfield; however, his partner in midfield, Luongo, might struggle to play three games in a week. Or if he starts, he might fade or be replaced by Lee Evans later on.
Ipswich are still playing their second-choice goalkeeper, but he has performed very well so far this season, with the highest number of clean sheets in the division.
It is notable that Harry Clarke, the right back, was replaced at halftime due to poor performance and was replaced by Brandon Williams, who was at fault for the Huddersfield goal but made up for it by scoring himself.
Conor Chaplin, the Ipswich number 10, hasn’t been as prolific this season but is still performing well.
The momentum from their promotion to the Championship might also have been a factor in their great start to this season. With the transfer window now closed for a few weeks, the rest of the teams are getting closer to finding their best eleven, and games should be even more competitive.
Reasons to Support Hull
Hull are unbeaten in their last eight league games. The xG also backs this up that they are not overperforming. They have also not been underperforming too much either.
They have two excellent, talented players on loan from Premier League clubs: Liam Delap from Man City and Tyler Morton from Liverpool.
Morton has only come into the side in the past week, has gotten two assists in two games, and got into two good goal-scoring positions in the last game against Plymouth Argle. He should keep his place in the side against Ipswich and can potentially build on this against Ipswich. He should keep his spot alongside Seri.
Jaden Philogene was signed from Aston Villa and has come in in the last four games, averaging three shots on goal and creating two assists. He played in the Championship with Cardiff last season, scoring four and creating one assist in 37 games. It seems like he is building on his form with Cardiff last season. He can create problems if he starts on the left wing and create opportunities for Connolly up front as well as for himself.
Liam Delap is a big talent on loan from Man City but has only scored twice in nine games and has been rested in the past two games. He might come in for this game on the right wing in place of Adama Traore and his powerful dribbling and shooting can do well against an Ipswich side that may be feeling the effects of three games in a week if they don’t rotate. Delap is a great option for this game.
Traore has started eight of nine games for Hull this season but rarely makes it past 65 minutes. He has one assist and one goal; he also missed a massive chance against Leeds. With Hull typically finishing games stronger than they start, it would suggest that he could be part of the reason for this. It’ll be interesting to see if Hull sticks with him again for this game.
Hull have struggled to create that many goal-scoring opportunities in many games, given the talent they have. With Morton and Philogene playing the past 3 games, that should help them progress the ball forward, as Morton had 400 meters of progressive passing in the last game, a similar start to Seri.
In defense, Lewie Coyle (Right back, captain) and Jacob Greaves (Central Defender) are also available for this game, which should boost the chances.
Hull 2-0 HT 32.0, €20
Hull Score 4 and win 42.0, €20
While this is likely to be a tight game given how well Ipswich have been performing, there is not enough evidence to support Hull having such a low percentage chance of winning. With the introduction of Morton, Philogene, Connolly’s form, Delap’s ability, and the return of key defenders, Hull can put in a competitive performance while also having more talented players. The question is: Can Liam Rosenior continue to mold this side into a title-challenging one and create more goal-scoring opportunities? At these odds, I think it’s possible. The recent xG does not support this, so it is a bit speculative.